John Mozeliak deserves recognition for his candor. Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations was asked directly if he would trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. He replied, “It is my intention to try.”

The Cardinals rebounded from a 71-91 record in 2023, winning 83 games, but they are nowhere near as strong as they have been since 2000. It is widely believed that the club is trying to reduce payroll and get younger and Mozeliak confirmed to The Athletic’s Katie Woo that they would have “a different profile” in 2025.

That leaves Arenado out. He is potentially a future Hall of Fame third baseman with a successful career playing for the Cardinals and Colorado Rockies. In 12 seasons, he has won three home run titles, 10 Gold Gloves, six Platinum Gloves, eight All-Star selections and five Silver Sluggers. His 56.7 WAR (Baseball Reference Version) is 21st all-time among third basemen. 13 of the players ahead of him are already in the Hall of Fame, two others are not yet eligible.

However, he turns 34 in April and his best years appear to be behind him. He posted a WAR of 2.4 and 2.5 in 2023 and 2024, making him a solid starter but no longer a superstar. He is under contract for three more seasons at salaries of $32 million, $27 million and $15 million, with the Rockies taking on $5 million in each of the next two years. Still, $64 million is a lot for a player aged 34 to 36 to accept.

To make matters worse, he has a full no-trade clause in the eight-year extension he signed with Colorado in 2019. He waived that no-trade clause to accept a move to St. Louis in 2021, but in order to do so, the Cardinals picked up another guaranteed year at the end of the contract and opted in after the 2022 season -out added (which he didn’t want to use). He could potentially demand contract sweeteners again if asked to agree to another deal.

Given his recent track record, an interested team would likely be less inclined to agree to a contract extension. In 2024, he hit just 16 home runs and his slugging percentage fell below .400 for the first time to .394. For comparison, his career slugging percentage is .515. His 101 OPS+ suggested his overall offensive production was still about league average, but it does indicate a hitter trending in the wrong direction.

Advanced metrics also show his bat is slowing down. His average exit velocity dropped from 88.8 mph in 2023 to 86.3 mph last year, which was just in the ninth percentile in the MLB. His hard-hit rate – the percentage of balls hit with an exit velocity of more than 95 mph – fell from 38.1% to 31.6%.

While he is no longer the undisputed best defensive third baseman in the game, his fielding is still a strength. He told Woo in November that he would be willing to move to first base with a new team, showing he might waive his no-trade clause, but much of his current value is still tied to the Third base defense tied. In mediocre offense, he’s less useful if he doesn’t play the third position. Additionally, while he could accept a trade, he did not say whether he would need a financial incentive to do so.

When he first moved to St. Louis, the Rockies had to contribute up to $51 million to cover his salaries. Four years later, the Cardinals may have to eat up some more of his contract if they want to move on from him. This is another complicating factor that makes a potential Arenado transfer difficult to negotiate.