The dispute between the US government and TikTok escalated after the recent court ruling that the law passed by Congress earlier this year requiring divestment or banning the app is constitutional. The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled unanimously in favor of the federal government, a result that could pose problems for the app, especially since the panel included judges with diverse ideological backgrounds.

Since the decision, TikTok filed a petition with the appeals court seeking a preliminary injunction to prevent the law from taking effect on January 19, a day before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. The company argued in its filing that an injunction was crucial to allow time for an appeal to the Supreme Court and asked for a decision by December 16. The lower court does not admit this.

Although TikTok has not confirmed that it will appeal to the Supreme Court, its statement following the lower court’s decision is being taken as a sign that the company intends to do so, and the company is widely expected to file before the June 19 deadline. will file for divestment in January. An appeal to the Supreme Court will likely involve an application for an injunction if this has not already been granted. The timing of when the Supreme Court will hear the case is uncertain, but a decision is expected toward the end of the court’s term in late June or early July. A Supreme Court victory would allow the app to operate without changes, but if the justices uphold the law again, TikTok will have to reform its business to stay in the US

One of the most significant consequences of the Supreme Court accepting the case — and granting a preliminary injunction — is that the app’s fate rests in the hands of the new Trump administration. While this would have been problematic during Trump’s last term, the new president has changed his tune and opposed banning the app during the campaign. Trump’s comments since his election victory have been minimal, and in a recent NBC interview he was noncommittal, notably avoiding the aggressive remarks that were a hallmark of his first term, but still not striking as friendly a tone as he did during the campaign.

If the Supreme Court takes up the case before the justices make a decision, the app will likely try to negotiate with the Trump administration to find a solution that avoids a ban if the law is upheld. What that agreement might look like is uncertain, but a starting point is likely TikTok’s Project Texas, although further concessions may be required, particularly regarding the app’s algorithms. This result likely falls short of a full divestiture and is required by law only to meet the standard of a “qualified divestiture” over which the President has significant influence. That discretion is what makes Trump’s TikTok flip-flop so important, as it signals an openness to a potential deal that seemed out of reach under the Biden administration.

Trump’s efforts to negotiate with the app could face resistance from some Republican lawmakers who have vehemently supported a ban. However, some critics appear open to potentially supporting a solution developed by Trump, as Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chairman of the House special committee on the Chinese Communist Party and co-author of the bill, said in a statement, he is “optimistic that President Trump will enable an American takeover of TikTok to enable its continued use in the United States.” Still, those members of Congress may not be willing to support repealing the law, making this solution likely a long-shot way for TikTok to avoid a ban if the Supreme Court upholds the law and the app can’t make a deal with Trump.

Another way Trump could try to protect the app while upholding the law if his administration can’t reach an acceptable agreement with TikTok is by pledging not to enforce the law. The danger with this approach is that the companies that would potentially be liable for failing to comply with the law, including Apple and Google, may choose to comply with the law anyway. This could result in the app being unsupported and effectively banned, even if the Trump administration wants to protect it. This solution is also unlikely to be a priority, but it is one of the levers that Trump could try to pull in an emergency.

TikTok’s loss in court, while significant, is far from the end of the story and should not be taken as a sign that the app’s ban is imminent or guaranteed. It will likely be several more months before the legal process is completed, and the new Trump administration is putting forward a wild card that could have a positive impact on the app and allow it to continue operating even if the law is followed.