• Russia’s warships are no longer at its base in Tartus, Syria – a critical facility for Moscow.
• Satellite images show several warships docked there earlier this month, but by Monday they had disappeared.
• The development came after rebels toppled longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Satellite images obtained by Business Insider show that Russia’s warships have disappeared from his base in Syria in the days after rebels toppled the country’s long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad.

In images taken by Planet Labs PBC earlier this month, warships can be seen docked at the Russian naval base in Tartus, a port city on the Mediterranean. However, in a photo taken on Monday, all the warships have disappeared.

The ships remained away from their berths as of Tuesday, according to a new satellite image from BlackSky.

The current situation raises significant questions about the future of the Russian military presence in Syria. Moscow backed Assad in his ruthless civil war, which ended in stunning fashion over the weekend after rebels toppled his government in a rapid offensive.

It is unclear whether the Russian warships have finally left. A picture from December 1 shows several warships docked in Tartus, but two days later they were no longer there. On Friday, some warships – including two surface combat ships and a submarine – were back. But three days later they disappeared again.

A separate image taken on Thursday by BlackSky, which provides real-time space-based information, showed that the original six ships that docked in Tartus earlier this month had returned. This suggests that Russia gradually withdrew its assets from the port as Assad’s government collapsed.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the satellite images said the five Russian surface ships – three frigates and two replenishment oilers – and the single submarine left the base on Monday.

The Russian ships were still missing from Tartus on Tuesday, new images show.

The Russian Defense Ministry has not confirmed any major changes in troop deployment, but Ukrainian military intelligence said on Monday that Moscow had withdrawn its warships from Tartus and would airlift weapons from the nearby Khmeimim base.

BI was not able to immediately verify reports of these military developments in Russia.

Open-source intelligence reports on social media drew attention to the unusual naval activity, sharing images that suggested the Russian warships were loitering off the coast of Syria.

Tartus is Russia’s main naval base abroad and provides the country with access to a warm-water port. Meanwhile, Moscow is using nearby Khmeimim to transport forces into and out of Africa. The loss of both facilities would be a major blow to the Russian military.

The Kremlin appears to be taking steps to ensure the security of its military facilities, but the details of a new interim government are unclear. According to Russian state media reports, Syrian rebels now have full control of the province where their bases are located.

Asked Sunday about the fate of Russian bases in Syria, a senior Biden administration official said they “cannot speculate.”

“It is not lost on anyone that the Russians have now, I think, announced that they have brought Assad to Moscow,” the U.S. official said during a phone call with reporters. “So we will see what the Syrians, who have worked for decades to overthrow the yoke of the Assad regime, think when it comes to the Russian facilities.”

Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – an organization that traces its origins to al-Qaeda but has since split off from the terrorist group – launched a surprise offensive in northwestern Syria in late November. The rebels quickly captured several key cities before seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, ending a bloody civil war that lasted more than 13 years.

In order to retain power, Assad was dependent on military support from Russia as well as Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah for years. The White House attributes the shocking collapse of its administration to the fact that these three actors were “weakened and distracted” by their respective conflicts against Ukraine and Israel.

“Assad was effectively abandoned because his only friends — again, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia — were no longer able to help,” the Biden administration official said.

December 10, 2024: This story has been updated with additional satellite images and related information.