My favorite thing that can and often does happen at the Winter Meetings is the completely unexpected trading. They’re fun in their own right, but they’re also fun because they can completely upend the way you think about the market.

On today’s episode, the Guardians trade Andres Gimenez to the Blue Jays… but:

The 26-year-old Gimenez is a super-elite defender at second base who, while he has fallen significantly at the top over the past two years, has a ton of value if he can even post a league-average wRC+. The glove is so good and the baserunning is strong too. He hit a whopping .297/.371/.466/141 wRC+ in 2022, but was about average in 2023, then hitting just a .252/.298/.340/83 wRC+.

What’s particularly crazy about this deal, however, is that Gimenez has signed a contract extension until 2029(!) – he only signed it in March 2023 – with a club option for 2030. The assumption is that a club like the Guardians will act provisionally At some point there will be someone who will make a deal like this, but it’s far too early! It’s quite surprising!

And what does that mean for a Blue Jays club facing a roster overhaul nearing the trade deadline? Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Chris Bassitt and Bo Bichette are free agents after the season and will have to decide on a lane very soon. Maybe they just did it? Maybe they’ll try to use some of the unspent Juan Soto money on a long-term deal with an up-and-coming offensive prospect with a superlative glove? It’s just not the direction I was expecting, so I’m still thinking about it. Obviously they’re going to spend a lot more to win this year. You can count on it now.

As for the Guardians, they always have to make deals like this. That doesn’t mean they’re opening second base to bring in someone like Nico Hoerner, although I understand some consideration will lead there. They probably just saw an opportunity to reduce risk by moving Gimenez. But we’ll see what the consequences are (That includes whether the middle infield market is about to change and whether a team will be willing to pounce on Hoerner even before they see him throw after surgery).