You may not know it by looking at sticker prices on grocery shelves, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.

According to a national survey of food prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the cost of this year’s holiday feast – an estimated $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 per person – has fallen 5% since last year , the lowest level since 2021, representing millions of US farmers. However, when adjusted for inflation, the picture improves even further.

“If your dollar had the same total purchasing power as a consumer in 1984…this would be the cheapest Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving Survey, excluding the outlier in 2020,” the authors wrote.

For many households, it doesn’t feel that way.

A defining feature of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election is the divergence between Americans’ poor views of the economy and its underlying strength. Many shoppers understandably focus on the price level—the dollar value of the things they buy—rather than the inflation-adjusted or “real” cost of those purchases. The latter is the true test of affordability because it reflects an often underestimated piece of the inflation puzzle: wage inflation.

And in fact, according to AFBF, Thanksgiving food prices have risen 19% since 2019, but federal data shows average household wages have risen about 25% over the same period.

Additionally, “the average American also has to work fewer hours to purchase the same meal than in previous years,” the report continued. “Wages continued to rise faster following the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. With average wages increasing 4% from 2023 to 2024, we needed 9% less work time to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

Of course, the wage increases haven’t helped all workers equally, and long-term expenses like housing and child care continue to burden families up and down the income scale. Although consumer confidence has surged in recent weeks, it is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Still, the AFBF report states, “Despite the declining purchasing power of the dollar, some of the goods in our basket are at their long-term lowest prices, even when measured against the ‘current dollar’ price.”

Turkey, for example, is 6% cheaper than last year, even though bird flu has wiped out some of the turkey population. Reduced availability typically drives up prices, but Americans eat about a pound less turkey per person each year, reducing demand by more than enough to offset the decline in supply.

Certain processed foods that may end up on Thanksgiving tables are more expensive. Rolls and cube filling are each sold 8% more than a year ago. On the other hand, sweet potatoes and whole milk saw the largest annual price declines, down 26% and 14%, respectively. While fresh cranberry prices rose 12%, reversing an 18% decline last year, they remain at their lowest level since 2015 – and when adjusted for inflation, they are on par with 1987 prices, the report said.

These affordability gains are good news for inflation-weary buyers, many of whom are increasingly focused on value for money this year. Major consumer brands have been hunting bargain-hungry customers for months with price cuts and special promotions. Some, like Walmart and TJ Maxx, are more successful than others, like Target.

The wave of discounts has become more competitive as the holidays approach, and grocery retailers are no exception. Food eaten at home was just 1.1% more expensive last month than in the same period last year, compared with the average overall consumer price increase of 2.6%.

Both Target and Aldi have launched Thanksgiving deals at lower prices than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal for four people, including a small turkey, canned vegetables and stovetop stuffing. Aldi is offering a $47 meal package for 10 people, touting it as lower than 2019 prices. Walmart is promoting a 29-item “inflation-free Thanksgiving” menu that can feed eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh offers Thanksgiving discounts on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six people for less than $5 each, plus additional savings for Prime members.

According to experts, the flood of promotions offers many opportunities for comparison.

“I would just advise consumers to take a look at what these meals are made of,” said Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to check out multiple retailers.”

Some Thanksgiving meal kits include more ingredients, but that could mean making more dishes from scratch. Others have fewer items but require less prep work. “Thanksgiving is very personal for many families,” Wenzel said, and the offering allows consumers to tailor their grocery shopping to their gatherings.

According to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, one cost-saving strategy is to buy your own “private label” brands, which can save shoppers $17 on a Thanksgiving meal for 10 people. Experts at Consumer Reports also recommend signing up for supermarket loyalty and cash back programs for additional savings, which often come with conveniences like virtual coupons in stores’ apps.

Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner also depends on geography. The AFBF estimates that households in the West, the most expensive region for holiday food, will spend on average about 18% more than households in the South, where it is cheapest.