This week marks the official start of the busiest shopping season of the year – joy and chaos for shoppers and a make-or-break season for most retailers.

People are expected to spend up to $989 billion this holiday season – a record. The National Retail Federation predicts retail sales this winter will be up to 3.5% higher than last year. Shoppers have spent 9.6% more on online purchases alone so far in November, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks transactions.

Some of the higher spending is due to higher prices. But that’s not the whole story: According to a survey by market research firm Circana, which closely tracks purchasing trends, more and more people are also planning to treat themselves this holiday season. It was found that on average, people budget $771 for the holiday season. Parents expect to spend an average of $1,014. Children, as any parent will tell you, are expensive.

Even though inflation has cooled for much of the year, people say they feel pressured to pay their expenses. And as budgets tighten, days known for big discounts take center stage. Overall, retailers are expecting record numbers of shoppers between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber ​​Monday.

“This year, more consumers are seeing the holidays as a break from everything going on in the world,” wrote Marshal Cohen, Circana’s chief retail advisor, “and more consumers are planning to buy more gifts for others to help them through difficult times to bring joy.”

Deals are the be-all and end-all

In Circana’s survey, 62% of people said their increased spending on groceries and bills would lead to changes in the way they shop. They are looking for off-brand purchases, perhaps buying fewer gifts or cheaper gifts, and – most importantly – looking for discounts.

Are the offers even good? That is the eternal question. And as usual, the answer is mixed.

Thanksgiving falls later this year, which means there are fewer days until Christmas. Retailers have less time to sell holiday gifts and decorations. Analysts therefore predict that companies will continue to offer discounts.

“If we don’t see the sales numbers retailers expect in the next few weeks, we could see more discounted items in December to move inventory ahead of the new year,” said Adam Davis, managing director of retail finance at Wells Fargo.

When are the offers best? Adobe offers predictions specific to online shopping: Thanksgiving Day could see the biggest discounts on toys, sporting goods, furniture and home appliances; Black Friday for TVs; Saturday for computers; Cyber ​​Monday for electronics and clothing. According to Adobe forecasts, electronics discounts could reach 30% on Monday.

Shop for classic gifts and a bit of fun

The top things people buy this weekend rarely change. There are electronics and gadgets, clothing and accessories, toys and gift cards.

Gifts that people buy for themselves are a category that can change depending on economic conditions. People are expected to spend about $44 more on themselves this year than last year. According to Deloitte’s annual consumer survey, almost half of shoppers plan to buy something for themselves.

The top toys are expected to include Legos, Hot Wheels and Barbie. Adobe is also reviewing the name of Pokémon trading cards, Tonie and Spider-Man figures, and slime-making kits. Top sellers for adults include Dyson Airwrap hair stylers, Bluetooth speakers, fitness trackers and pickleball rackets. Circana notes that more and more people are planning to purchase beauty products, shoes and luggage.

And the trend of gifting experiences remains strong: More than half of shoppers surveyed by Circana said they plan to purchase gift cards or tickets – for dining, traveling, seeing a game or show, or in one Spa to relax. A growing share of these gifts are certificates for courses, adventures and other participatory events.

This makes sense to Betsy Brushway.

“We’re big travelers, so we want to cut down on the number of Christmas presents a little bit and spend more time getting out and exploring the world,” Brushway said during a recent visit to the Mall of America near Minneapolis from her home in Kentucky out of. “My husband and I set a budget for Christmas shopping this year, so we’re going to stick to that budget.”

Rising expenses, particularly for health and auto insurance, are curbing their spending, she said. Nevertheless, she had ordered Nike shoes from her nephew’s wish list and was looking for her “very girly” niece.

“I’m pretty frugal myself. I’m a saver,” Brushway said.

However, the holidays are an exception. “I like to spoil my family at Christmas. They do a lot for me, so I like to give them something special.”