This season the Champions League has undergone a significant change. The well-known group phase, which for many years decided which teams would advance to the knockout rounds on the way to the final, was replaced. In its place is a new format where each team competes against eight opponents and all 36 participants are listed on a single table.

This revised format promises an unprecedented hit rate and Drama until the last moment of the final. After the first five match days, the first round of the Champions League enters the final spurt, which brings with it big surprises and puts some of the supposed favorites in precarious situations. Real Madrid, Manchester City and especially Paris Saint-Germain are prime examples.

The sixth matchday of the league phase, which takes place this week, promises excitement with high stakes, countless possible outcomes and a table that is difficult to decipher. In this atmosphere of uncertainty, few are willing to make predictions. However, Opta’s supercomputer has no such concerns. Over 50,000 scenarios were simulated using big data to predict the final ranking of all 36 teams, including expected points total.

Based on each team’s predicted points at the end of the league phase and their current goal differences, we can outline a possible table. Although this prediction may differ significantly from the final ranking, it provides insight into possible scenarios and hypothetical matchups for the next rounds. Below you will find the forecast table for the Champions League league phase after eight match days, according to the most likely points total of all 36 participants and their current goal differences:

position	team	Expected points (probability)
1	Liverpool	22 (22.1%)
2	Inter*	19 (23.3%)
3	Arsenal*	19 (27.1%)
4	Borussia Dortmund*	18 (21.6%)
5	Bayern Munich*	18 (28.2%)
6	Atalanta	17 (22.4%)
7	Barcelona*	16 (19.5%)
8	Sporting de Portugal*	16 (22.1%)
9	LOSC Lille*	16 (26.1%)
10	Atlético Madrid*	15 (25.1%)
11	AC Milan*	15 (21.7%)
12	Manchester City*	14 (22.7%)
13	Bayer Leverkusen*	14 (21.3%)
14	Aston Villa*	14 (22%)
15	AS Monaco	13 (26.2%)
16	Benfica	13 (21.7%)
17	Brest	13 (21.5%)
18	PSV Eindhoven*	12 (21.1%)
19	Juventus*	12 (21.1%)
20	Celtic*	12 (21.6%)
21	Real Madrid*	12 (26.8%)
22	Feyenoord	11 (23%)
23	Bruges*	10 (22.6%)
24	Paris Saint Germain*	10 (20.2%)
25	Dinamo Zagreb*	10 (24.3%)
26	Stuttgart*	10 (26.6%)
27	Shakhtar Donetsk	7 (24%)
28	Red star	6 (24.3%)
29	Girona*	4 (22.4%)
30	RB Leipzig*	4 (20.8%)
31	Bologna*	4 (22.1%)
32	Sparta Prague*	4 (28.9%)
33	Storm Graz*	3 (26.5%)
34	Salzburg*	3 (35.5%)
35	Young boys*	3 (24.8%)
36	Slovak Bratislava	0 (42.1%)

*The tiebreaker will be decided based on the existing goal difference before the start of the sixth round.

It is worth noting that these rankings are not final, as head-to-head encounters and goal differentials will result in significant fluctuations in final positions. However, as a rough guide: Opta’s analysis suggests that 16 points should secure a top-8 finish (and direct passage to the round of 16), while 10 points should be enough for a top-24 finishto ensure progress in competition.

The path for Spanish clubs

Barcelona

Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona put in a strong performance and took 12 out of 15 possible points. This puts them well placed to finish in the top eight, with just a 24% chance of missing the game according to Opta. However, they still have three difficult games ahead of them. This Wednesday they will be visiting Borussia Dortmundfollowed by a trip to Benfica’s Estádio da Luz (January 21) and a final home game against Atalanta in Montjuïc (January 29). Barcelona’s current goal difference of +13 could be crucial. Opta predicts they will finish with 16 points, likely securing a place in the top eight.

Atletico Madrid

Atlético Madrid took a huge leap towards progress with a stunning 6-0 win over Sparta Prague. Now nine points ahead and with a goal difference of +2, their favorable schedule allows them to achieve a top-8 finish, which they achieve in 36.1% of simulations. Next up is Slovan Bratislava in Madrid this Wednesdayfollowed by a home game against Bayer Leverkusen (January 21) and an away game against Salzburg (January 29). Opta gives Atlético just a 0.3% chance of missing out on the top 24.

real Madrid

The outlook for Real Madrid is less optimistic. After the defeat against Liverpool they still have six points from five games, so their chances of avoiding the playoff round are slim (2.1%). Their next game against Atalanta on Tuesday will be crucial, followed by home games against Salzburg (January 22) and Brest (January 29). Still, Madrid has a 90 percent chance of reaching the playoffs but only a 6.8 percent chance of getting out of the top 24.

Girona

Girona faces the toughest battle. With just three points and a goal difference of -5, they only have a 4.6% chance of staying in the competition. You will be hosting Liverpool at Montilivi on Tuesdaytravel to Milan (January 22) and finish with a home game against Arsenal (January 29). Only a miracle can extend Girona’s European dream.

	Top 8 odds	Playoff odds (9th-24th)	Elimination chances (25th – 36th)
Barcelona	76.3%	23.7%	0%
Sporty	36.1%	63.6%	0.3%
real Madrid	2.1%	91.1%	6.8%
Girona	0%	4.6%	95.4%

Liverpool cannot be stopped, City must not fail, PSG on the brink…

On the international stage There are many surprises and emotions run highas several European football giants face major challenges and urgently need to perform in the final three matchdays. A prime example is Paris Saint-Germain, who find themselves outside the top 24 ahead of Matchday 6.

The French champion is facing the most dramatic situation among Europe’s elite clubs. With just four points from the first five matchdays, PSG would currently be eliminated from the Champions League. Opta’s simulations offer little hope: you have a 0% chance of finishing in the top eight in any of the 50,000 scenarios. However, the probability of reaching the playoff round is still 58%. To achieve this, they must overcome significant obstacles. First, Luis Enrique’s team will face Salzburg away on Tuesday. Their biggest test will take place on matchday seven Manchester City, also under pressure, visits Paris on January 22nd. PSG will end their season away to Stuttgart on January 29th.

Manchester City

The reigning Premier League champions also struggled. Losing two points to Feyenoord in the final 15 minutes of a game has plunged Pep Guardiola’s side into one of their worst crises in recent memory. With eight out of 15 possible points, City is heading into the home stretch in a precarious position. To avoid the playoff round, they will need to perform exceptionally well in their remaining games, as they will reach the top eight in just a few games 15.5% of Opta’s simulations.

The path that lies ahead is challenging. City tours Juventus this Wednesdayfollowed by a big clash against PSG on January 22nd. The league phase will conclude on January 29th at home against Club Brugge.

	Top 8 odds	Playoff odds (9th-24th)	Elimination chances (25th – 36th)
Liverpool	98.3%	1.7%	0%
Inter	90.9%	9.1%	0%
Bayern Munich	53.9%	46%	0.1%
Manchester City	15.5%	81.7%	2.8%
Paris Saint Germain	0%	58%	42%

The revival of FC Bayern Munich and the dynamics of Inter Milan

Bayern Munich is heading into the final spurt with new self-confidence. The Bavarian giants have bounced back after important wins, including a victory over PSG on the previous matchday. Previous defeats against Aston Villa and Barcelona put them in a difficult position, but their recent successes virtually guarantee a top 24 finish (with Opta giving just a 0.1% chance of elimination). The team remains very active in the race for a top eight finish, which they achieve 53.9% of simulations. Bayern’s game plan is also positive for them with counter games Shakhtar Donetsk on TuesdayFeyenoord on January 22nd and a home final against already eliminated Slovan Bratislava on January 29th.

The situation at Inter Milan is even safer. The reigning Serie A champions are almost certain of a place in the top eightwith Opta giving them a 90.9% chance. Simone Inzaghi’s team has 13 out of 15 points and hasn’t conceded a goal yet (+7 goal difference). Their remaining schedule includes a visit to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, a trip to Sparta Prague on January 22nd and a home game against Monaco at Giuseppe Meazza on January 29th.

Liverpool: the (seemingly) unstoppable force

Finally, the team most likely to be at the top of the table at the end of the league phase Liverpool. Arne Slot’s team was dominant in both the Premier League and the Champions League. With Opta giving them one 98.3 percent chance of finishing in the top eight and 62.2 percent chance of finishing first overallthe Reds seem unstoppable.

Their remaining games are favorable, starting with a trip to Girona on Tuesday. They then host Lille at Anfield on January 21st before completing the first phase with an away game at PSV Eindhoven on January 29th. Then it’s off to the knockout phase!

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