This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself as the gaming industry’s premier awards show – the Oscars of Gaming. It’s still so overloaded with advertising that it’s probably still known more for trailers than awards, but that’s changing. And while the winners tend to be conservative, they broadly represent the critical consensus. The voting panel is made up of a wide range of international gaming media, so there’s a good chance your favorite publications and critics’ picks will play a role in the Game Awards. (Polygon does.)

The night’s top prize is, of course, Game of the Year – and there are clear indicators of what constitutes Game of the Year at the Game Awards, based on a decade of data. On November 18, the Game Awards announced the nominees for these and all other categories, largely confirming these indicators. Nevertheless, in 2024 it is a particularly open race without a fixed leader. After crunching the numbers and taking the temperatures, we’ll pick the likely Game of the Year winner below and rank the remaining six nominees in order of how likely they are to win. We’ll find out if we got it right when the winner is announced at the Game Awards on December 12th.

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