Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Thursday’s NBA slate

Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Thursday’s NBA slate

Thursday night’s NBA slate only includes three games, but there’s still a lot to break down.

The Detroit Pistons visit Boston as heavy underdogs to the Celtics in their third game of the season.

The Toronto Raptors travel south to take on the Miami Heat and the Sacramento Kings, just one game under .500, travel to New Orleans to take on the struggling Pelicans team.

I can recommend a few streamers and four bets from the three games I have my eye on.

Without further ado, let’s get started.


Thursday’s stream team

Trey Murphy III, SF/SG, New Orleans Pelicans (available in 55% of ESPN leagues)

Murphy started the last two games when Brandon Ingram was sidelined with an ankle injury, and he has made the most of it, scoring 47 or more fantasy points in both games. He should continue to play plenty of minutes tonight at home against the Sacramento Kings.

Duncan Robinson, SF, Miami Heat (94.8% available)

As Miami struggles with injuries, Robinson’s role in the rotation has grown significantly. He has scored 26 or more fantasy points while playing at least 27 minutes per night in each of the last three games. Robinson is a great source of points and 3-pointers if you play in a category league. Against a Toronto Raptors team that struggles defensively, he’s in a good spot tonight, ranking near the bottom in points allowed per 100 possessions.

Moody’s bets for the day

play

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Malik Monk OVER 22.5 points + assists (-120)

Monk was a fantastic addition to the Kings starting lineup. He has reached that mark in four of his last five games, with the only miss being a blowout win against the Utah Jazz on Sunday. Over that span, Monk plays 32.8 minutes per game, averaging 14 field goal attempts and 10.8 potential assists. He’s in a great position against a Pelicans team that ranks near the bottom of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. Monk should have plenty of opportunities to move on.

Dejounte Murray OVER 34.5 points, rebounds and assists (-115)

The Pelicans look strong on paper, but injuries have been their biggest drawback. Almost all of their top players have missed time, so it’s not about who’s out, it’s about who’s available. Murray is a versatile scorer who can do anything on his own, with heart and soul, and he’s played an even bigger role lately, hitting that line in back-to-back games. The Kings are no pushovers on defense, but with Murray’s high usage rate (28.8%), he’s in a great position to clear that line tonight.

Tobias Harris OVER 12.5 points (-110)

The Boston Celtics give up the second-most points per game to power forwards, which puts Harris in a great position tonight. Harris is poised for success regardless of Jayson Tatum’s status for the game. Harris has mastered this line in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 11.2 field goal attempts in 30.8 minutes per game over that span. He hit that line in one of two games against the Celtics this season, and signs point to another solid performance.

Bam Adebayo OVER 4.5 assists (-140)

Adebayo has been on fire lately as a host, and tonight he faces a Raptors team that is allowing the most assists per game to centers. Adebayo has capitalized in similar places before. He’s mastered that assist line in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 9.1 potential assists in nearly 34 minutes per game over that span, and he’s scored heavily in both games against the Raptors this season.

Predictions and injury reports

Basketball Power Index from ESPN Analytics. Infringement aggregation from Rotowire.com. Odds according to ESPN BET

Players in italics are available in most ESPN leagues


Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

Line: Piston 12.5 (-110) | Celtics -12.5 (-110)
Money line: Piston +500 | Celtics -800
In total: 227.5 (-105E, -115U)
BPI forecast: Celtics by 11.5, 82% direct increase, 227.6 total points.

Injury report:
Pistons: Bobi Klintman, (OUT – Wade)
Celtics: Jaden Springer, (GTD – Illness); Jayson Tatum, (GTD – knee); Jordan Walsh, (GTD – Ribs); Sam Hauser, (GTD – Thigh)

Piston projections:

  • Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 46.8 FPTS (25.1 pts, 6.8 reb, 8.2 ast, 2.2 3pm)

  • Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 27.2 FPTS (13.8 points, 5.8 reb, 2.7 ast)

  • Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 26.2 FPTS (15.4 Points, 3.4 Reb, 3.9 Ast)

  • Malik Beasley, SG: 22.9 FPTS (12.6 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 3.2 3pm)

  • Jalen Duren, C: 22.0 FPTS (10.6 Pts, 8.4 Reb, 2.4 Ast, 1.3 Blk)

  • Isaiah Stewart, PF/C: 15.9 FPTS (6.3 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 2.3 Ast, 1.4 Blk)

  • Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 14.9 FPTS (8.7 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.4 ast)

Celtics predictions:

  • Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 49.6 FPTS (27.3 pts, 8.7 reb, 6.0 ast, 3.6 3pm)

  • Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 43.4 FPTS (26.3 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.9 ast, 2.4 3pm)

  • Derrick White, PG/SG: 33.5 FPTS (15.5 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 4.9 Ast, 3.2 3PM)

  • Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 27.4 FPTS (15.8 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.7 Ast, 1.9 3PM)

  • Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 26.6 FPTS (12.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.9 3pm)

  • Al Horford, PF/C: 20.0 FPTS (8.2 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.9 3pm)

  • Payton Pritchard, PG: 15.7 FPTS (6.8 Points, 2.3 Reb, 2.1 Ast)


Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Raptors 10.5 (-120) | Heat -10.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Raptors +340 | Heat -450
In total: 224.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI forecast: Heat by 9.9, direct increase by 79%, 223.6 total points.

Injury report:
Raptors: Scottie Barnes, (OUT – Ankle); Bruce Brown, (OUT – Knee); Immanuel Quickley, (OUT – Elbow)
Heat: Jimmy Butler, (GTD – Knee); Pelle Larsson, (GTD – Ankle); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Heel)

Raptors predictions:

  • RJ Barrett, SG/SF/PF: 41.4 FPTS (25.1 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 6.3 Ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Jakob Poeltl, C: 32.6 FPTS (15.2 Pts, 11.4 Reb, 3.2 Ast, 1.4 Blk)

  • Gradey Dick, SG/SF: 25.3 FPTS (16.0 Points, 3.1 Reb, 2.1 Ast, 2.4 3PM)

  • Ochai Agbaji, SG/SF: 20.7 FPTS (9.4 points, 4.0 Reb, 2.2 Ast)

  • Ja’Kobe Walter, SG: 18.7 FPTS (9.4 points, 3.7 reb, 2.1 ast)

  • Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 18.3 FPTS (8.7 points, 4.6 reb, 2.5 ast)

  • Davion Mitchell, PG: 17.5 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.8 ast)

Heat forecasts:

  • Bam Adebayo, C: 42.8 FPTS (19.2 Points, 10.4 Reb, 5.4 Ast)

  • Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 42.4 FPTS (25.3 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 5.3 Ast, 3.8 3PM)

  • Jimmy Butler, SG/SF/PF: 35.1 FPTS (19.2 Points, 5.3 Reb, 4.8 Ast)

  • Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 20.9 FPTS (12.0 Points, 2.8 Reb, 2.4 Ast)

  • Duncan Robinson, SF: 20.4 FPTS (11.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.5 3pm)

  • Nikola Jovic, PF: 18.6 FPTS (8.7 points, 4.2 reb, 1.6 ast)

  • Haywood Highsmith, SF: 16.4 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast)


Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans
8pm ET

Line: Kings -7.5 (EVEN) | Pelicans 7.5 (-120)
Money line: Kings -270 | Pelicans +220
In total: 231.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI forecast: Kings by 3.8, 63% direct increase, 225.1 total points.

Injury report:
Kings: Devin Carter, (OUT – Shoulder); Trey Lyles, (OUT – Wade)
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (OUT – Ankle); Javonte Green, (GTD – Ankle); Jordan Hawkins, (OUT – Rear); Karlo Matkovic, (OUT – Back); Jose Alvarado, (OUT – Hamstring); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Thigh)

Kings projections:

  • De’Aaron Fox, PG: 45.5 FPTS (26.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.4 ast, 2.2 3pm)

  • Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 40.2 FPTS (19.6 Points, 11.6 Reb, 5.9 Ast)

  • DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF: 35.2 FPTS (21.8 points, 3.5 reb, 4.1 ast)

  • Malik Monk, SG/SF: 30.8 FPTS (16.4 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 4.4 Ast, 2.1 3PM)

  • Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 26.1 FPTS (13.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.8 3pm)

  • Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 17.1 FPTS (7.9 points, 2.7 Reb, 1.8 Ast)

  • Keon Ellis, SG: 12.5 FPTS (5.5 Points, 1.7 Reb, 1.3 Ast)

Pelicans projections:

  • Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 37.8 FPTS (19.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 5.9 ast, 1.8 3pm)

  • CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 33.9 FPTS (19.6 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.8 3pm)

  • Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 27.8 FPTS (15.0 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.8 Ast, 2.8 3PM)

  • Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 21.6 FPTS (11.0 points, 3.6 reb, 2.5 ast)

  • Brandon Boston Jr., SG/SF: 20.8 FPTS (10.8 Points, 2.7 Reb, 2.6 Ast)

  • Yves Missi, C: 17.7 FPTS (9.1 points, 8.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast)

  • Javonte Green, SF: 16.2 FPTS (8.3 Points, 2.8 Reb, 1.3 Ast)

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