• David Montgomery should find the end zone against the Bears: The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA per rush allowed, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

• Devon Achane’s versatility makes him a good choice: Achane has scored six times inside the 10-yard line, ranking 15th in the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA per rush allowed, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

Now they face a Lions rushing attack that has the third-highest EPA per rush and second-highest success rate in the NFL. Detroit also runs the ball in the red zone 9% more often than expected, preferring to hit it on the ground.

Even with Jahmyr Gibbs taking touches between the 20s, David Montgomery remains Detroit’s favorite red zone defender, outscoring Gibbs in close-quarters situations nearly 2-1. With the Lions boasting one of the highest team totals this week – and plenty of scoring opportunities – Montgomery is a good chance to find the end zone in this Thanksgiving showdown.

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RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane has carved out a significant role in the red zone for the Dolphins and has the sixth-highest touch percentage in the league on plays inside the 5-yard line.

Achane really stands out as a red zone threat as his six targets inside the 10-yard line rank 15th in the league. This complements his role as a runner and gives him more scoring opportunities than almost any other player in the NFL.

The Dolphins’ offense is well-positioned to put up points against a Packers defense that has ranked in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per attempt, EPA allowed per game and success rate allowed in recent weeks. At even money, Achane is a great choice to find the end zone because of his strong effort.

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Longshot: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs have been dominant against the run this season, ranking first in the NFL in several key efficiency metrics, including yards per carry allowed, rush success rate allowed and EPA allowed per rush.

That dominance has forced opponents to attack from the air, where Kansas City is most vulnerable to tight ends. The Chiefs have given up the most yards in the league at this position.

Enter rookie Brock Bowers, a target machine who makes noise on 27% of his routes. He’s also a weapon in the red zone and has one of the highest PFF ratings on plays inside the 20-yard line.

Since the Raiders are expected to throw often when playing from behind, look for Las Vegas to take advantage of this matchup by targeting Bowers against a defense vulnerable to tight ends.

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