Devin Williams trade analysis for Yankees, Brewers

Devin Williams trade analysis for Yankees, Brewers

The Yankees and Brewers agreed to a major trade on Friday that saw each side add different elements to their pitching staff. The Yanks bolstered their bullpen with elite closer Devin Williams, while the Brewers improved their rotation with left-handed starter Nestor Cortes. Milwaukee also acquired minor league infielder Caleb Durbin through the trade.

TRADE DETAILS
Yankees get: RHP Devin Williams
Brewers receive: LHP Nestor Cortes, INF Caleb Durbin, cash considerations

Here’s a breakdown of this fascinating exchange from all angles by MLB.com experts.

Why it makes sense for the Yankees
Via Yankees hit author Bryan Hoch

After earning $3.95 million entering his final season as an arbitration candidate last year, Cortes became expendable to the Yankees after they signed Max Fried, who reportedly agreed to an eight-year, $218 million contract on Tuesday -Dollar had agreed to, representing the largest deal ever issued to a left-handed pitcher.

A 2022 American League All-Star, Cortes has spent five of his seven big league seasons with the Yankees and also had brief stints as a pitcher for the Orioles and Mariners. In 135 major league games (86 starts), Cortes compiled a 33-21 record and a 3.80 ERA.

Why it makes sense for the Brewers
Via Brewers beat author Adam McCalvy

Williams was an obvious trade candidate for the Brewers from the start of the offseason, and that has nothing to do with the fact that he gave up Pete Alonso’s game-winning home run in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Mets. Just like Corbin Burnes last offseason, Williams entered his final season without free agency, and a team like Milwaukee that won on a modest budget almost always has to trade those types of players to bring in the next wave of talent, no quite no matter how much the loss of a Cy Young Award winner like Burnes or a two-time reliever of the year like Williams hurts in the short term.

In this case, the Brewers get a prominent role back in the same contract position with Cortes entering his final year as Arbiter. But it still makes sense for Milwaukee for several reasons. First, they gained a versatile infielder in Durbin who gives them plenty of options to replace shortstop Willy Adames and fits right into the Brewers’ love of speed. Second, it gives them a lefty starter for the top of a relatively thin rotation who can be swapped out at any time at next year’s trade deadline if the Brewers’ offer for an NL Central three-peat goes sideways. And third, the Brewers have in-house replacements for Williams, although none of them are as successful as a pitcher with a changeup so good he has his own nickname.

The Brewers had a 48-33 record while Williams was on the injured list last season. Trevor Megill, who led the way with 20 saves during that span, is controllable for three more years. And another flamethrower, Abner Uribe, who started last season as a closer before command issues earned him a demotion and a knee injury ended his season, will also be back.

Williams’ brilliance in the regular season helped the Brewers ease the burden of signing Josh Hader in 2022. Now someone has to do the same. More >>

Effects on the hot stove
Via MLB.com reporter Brian Murphy

The bullpen market has been a bit quiet this winter. But there are still a huge amount of impactful arms available in free agency, and perhaps this trade for one of the very best backup arms will lead to a flurry of activity.

On Friday’s edition of Hot Stove, MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi said there was a lot of excitement surrounding Scott during this week’s winter meetings in Dallas, and he reported that the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all together to the All-Star left-hander, who had a 1.75 ERA over 72 innings last season. This report came before the Williams trade fell through, so it’s unclear whether the Yanks will remain committed to Scott. It is clear that many clubs are pursuing him. As for the rest of the bullpen market, Morosi said teams appear to be waiting to sign Scott as he expects to get the most lucrative contract among available relief pitchers.

Hoffman posted a 2.17 ERA and a 12.1 K/9 over 66 1/3 innings out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2024, and the Phils are open to a reunion, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required) . Robertson is entering his age-40 season, but the 16-year veteran posted a 12.4 K/9 and a 3.00 ERA over 72 innings with Texas last season.

Other useful closers include Kenley Jansen and Carlos Estévez. Jansen, 37, is one of eight pitchers in MLB history with at least 400 saves. Estévez had 57 saves and a 3.22 ERA over the last two seasons while pitching for the Angels and Phillies.

Prospect profile
About senior reporter Sam Dykstra

INF Caleb Durbin
Age: 24
Ht: 5 feet 6 inches / Weight: 185 pounds.
Bats: R/ Litters: R
Designed: 14th round, 2021
MLB ETA: 2025

Statistics for 2024
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre .287/.396/.471, 10 HR, 60 RBIs, 29 SB in 82 games

Durbin, a former Division III standout at Washington University in St. Louis, moved up to Triple-A in 2024 and showed high in-zone contact rates against a variety of pitch types due to his impressive hand-eye coordination. His outstanding speed and exceptional baserunning skills helped him set an Arizona Fall League single-season record with 29 steals, further solidifying his place in the prospect landscape. He’s undersized at 5’10” and, as expected, doesn’t have a ton of raw power (think right guard Sal Frelick), limiting his ceiling and everyday potential. He has moved around a lot in his pro career, with stints at second, third, shortstop, center and left, and is best seen as a major league utilityman who can provide roles off the bench.

Dive deep
About analyst Mike Petriello

In the five seasons since Williams burst onto the scene in 2020, he is second among all pitchers with 200 innings and a 1.70 ERA, third in strikeout rate with 40.8%, first in batting average against with . 144 and fifth in home runs per nine, 0.53. “He throws out a lot of hits, and you can’t take hits from him either,” is the apt phrase, and that’s more than enough to not worry too much about the obvious downside, which is his 12 walk percentage At 11, it is in the upper part of the acceptable range highest in these times.

That’s nitpicking, though, because when you come across a pitcher whose offering is so elite it carries its own branding – “The Airbender,” Williams’ screwball-like changeup that has more than 19 inches of arm-side break path to the plate – you don’t worry so much about the walks.

However, just as important as what he has done in his career so far is what he has done in 2024. Williams missed the first half of the season with stress fractures in his back, a truly scary combination of words for any pitcher. In 21 2/3 innings after returning, Williams looked like…well, himself, striking out 43% of batters and allowing just three earned runs, which certainly gave the Yankees confidence in his health.

In reality, however, this change matters. To put it this way: Over the past five seasons, it has been the 10th most valuable pitch type in baseball in terms of run value, at +52. The thing is, this is a counting statistic. Every single pitch that is more valuable – Dylan Cease’s slider, Kevin Gausman’s splitter, etc. – comes from starting players who have thrown those pitches hundreds or thousands of times. There is no other helper in sight. It is one of the most valuable fields in the game and is well suited to Yankee Stadium.

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