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College football spread picks, Week 16: Army-Navy, Celebration Bowl more

College football spread picks, Week 16: Army-Navy, Celebration Bowl more

We’ve made it to the end of the regular season and the good news is that there’s a three-way tie for first place against the spread in our panel of experts. The bad news is that their best record was still two games under .500.

The moral of the story: Picking college football games against the spread remains extremely difficult. And as bowl season begins, things will get much more difficult.

Between the transfer portal, NFL draft declarations and the coaching carousel, predicting bowl game outcomes has never been more difficult. Will that stop us from trying? Of course not.

Remember to end or fade responsibly.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL SALES:

name Last week course of the year
Blake Schuster 3-3 74-76
Michelle Martinelli 4-2 74-76
Mitchell Northam 5-1 74-76
Christian D’Andrea 5-1 70-80
Tyler Nettuno 3-3 66-84
  • All odds via BetMGM
  • No. 22 Army vs. Navy (Landover, MD), Saturday, 3 p.m. ET on CBS
  • Opening line: Select them
  • Blake Schuster: Army -6.5
  • I hate keeping score, but I love Bryson Daily. The AAC champions have been playing high-intensity football for weeks and still have a lot to win.
  • Mitchell Northam: Navy +6.5
  • I don’t think Army is a full touchdown and extra point better than the Mids this year. Navy played a tougher schedule and the Mids had a week off to prepare for Army while the Black Knights hosted the AAC title game. Additionally, 10 of the last 13 Army-Navy games have been decided by seven points or less.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Navy +6.5
  • This won’t be a shootout with both teams trading touchdowns, and that spread just seems a little too wide. Army wins, but not by a touchdown.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Army -6.5
  • I think Army clearly seems to be the more consistent team this year, although this choice admittedly makes me nervous considering how close and unpredictable these games tend to be when Army and Navy face off in triple option mode.
  • South Carolina State vs. Jackson State (Cricket Celebration Bowl), Saturday, noon ET on ABC
  • Opening line: Jackson State -1.5
  • Blake Schuster: South Carolina State -1.5
  • The MEAC owns this series with a record of 6-2. I can’t buck this trend, even though Jackson State remains a solid program after Deion Sanders.
  • Mitchell Northam: South Carolina State +1.5
  • I grew up near a MEAC school, so I root for the Bulldogs.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Jackson State -1.5
  • It should definitely be close, but after a SWAC title win and despite not having an extra week off, they have to keep up with Jackson State here.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Jackson State -1.5
  • Both teams have impressed this season, but I think the Tigers will win their first HBCU national title since 1996 after throttling Southern to win the SWAC Championship.
  • Western Michigan vs. Southern Alabama (IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl), Saturday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Opening line: South Alabama -9.5
  • Blake Schuster: South Alabama -7.5
  • The spread is wide, but the game is at Alabama and the Jaguars still have a strong running back room even without Fluff Bothwell.
  • Mitchell Northam: Western Michigan +7.5
  • South Alabama had the 20th-highest scoring offense in the country this year, but dynamic running back Fluff Bothwell, who led the Sun Belt in rushing touchdowns, is in the transfer portal.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Western Michigan + 7.5
  • With a seven-win season on the line, give me the Broncos to at least cover what is essentially a home game for South Alabama.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Western Michigan +7.5
  • Trusting the MAC teams in a bowl game feels like foolishness, but I trust the Jaguars even less when star running back Fluff Bothwell isn’t available.
  • West Virginia vs. No. 25 Memphis (Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl), Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Opening line: West Virginia -4.5
  • Blake Schuster: Memphis-4
  • The Tigers beat Tulane on the road in the AAC regular season finale and are now upsetting a West Virginia team after releasing Neal Brown for Rich Rodriguez. This could get ugly for the Mountaineers.
  • Mitchell Northam: Memphis-4
  • WVU is about to have a new head coach and a lot of changes. I’m on the side of continuity and one of the best G5 teams.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Memphis-4
  • The Tigers have won four of their last five, and West Virginia’s defense can’t stop them all game.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Memphis-4
  • The Tigers weren’t on the CFP roster due to a loss to Navy, but they seemed to be the more formidable team for most of this year. It’s a tough matchup for a WVU team led by an interim coach.
  • James Madison vs. Western Kentucky (Boca Raton Bowl), Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Opening line: James Madison -3
  • Blake Schuster: Western Kentucky +9.5
  • Too many points to attach. Even though WKU just took part in a boat race at Jacksonville State last week.
  • Mitchell Northam: JMU -9.5
  • It seems like a lot of points in an unpredictable bowl game, but the Dukes are better.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Western Kentucky +9.5
  • It’s quite a jump for a team I was planning on picking anyway, but this made it easy.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Western Kentucky +9.5
  • James Madison’s offense can easily produce enough to cover here, but I have faith in the Hilltoppers, who had a nice season, even if they ended it painfully with a crushing loss in the C-USA title rematch against Jax State.
  • No. 24 UNLV vs. Cal (Art of Sport LA Bowl), Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Opening line: Cal -1.5
  • Blake Schuster: Cal -1.5
  • One last hurray for Jadyn Ott and the Calgorithm in 2024.
  • Mitchell Northam: UNLV +1.5
  • One team has Hajj-Malik Williams and the other doesn’t.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Cal -1.5
  • I’m not sure why, but my heart says, “Choose Cal and ignore that the Bears have a loss to Florida State on their resume.”
  • Tyler Nettuno: UNLV +1.5
  • I know Cal has lost a lot of close games in ACC play, but why are the Golden Bears the favorite here? UNLV has a lot of explosive potential on offense and this seems like a bad matchup for Cal.
  • Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern (R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl), Thursday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Opening line: Georgia South -1.5
  • Blake Schuster: Ga South -6
  • I hope the Eagles team that almost beat Boise State shows up, not the team that was throttled by Old Dominion.
  • Mitchell Northam: Ga South -6
  • I’ll ride with the team whose coach didn’t just leave for Temple.
  • Michelle Martinelli: Sam Houston +6
  • I hate to pick a team that beat Kennesaw State in overtime, but here we are.
  • Tyler Nettuno: Georgia Southern -6
  • Sam Houston had a phenomenal season in his second season as a member of the FBS, but Georgia Southern is simply a better and more talented team right now.

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