What better way to shake off the winter doldrums than with a visit to sunny Florida?

So the UFC closes out its 2024 calendar year with Miami’s Colby Covington taking on Joaquin Buckley in the main event of UFC Tampa on Saturday. This somehow came out of nowhere after Belal Muhammad was forced to withdraw from UFC 310, setting off a chain of events that saw Buckley’s originally scheduled opponent Ian Machado move Garry to a pay-per-view spot opposite Shavkat Rakhmonov and Covington coming on at short notice as a replacement for Garry.

It was a smart move by “Chaos,” who against all odds could be in the conversation for a fourth (!) shot at the undisputed welterweight title if he impresses against Buckley. When we last saw Covington, he lost a listless decision to Leon Edwards, which he has since attributed to a bad foot, altitude sickness, or a dog eating his homework and then disappearing for 12 months. But the wily veteran has chosen the right moment to reemerge, and not just because of a favorable political landscape.

This should be Buckley’s time to shine as the former middleweight, who has won five straight fights, has dropped down to 170 pounds. He’s done a lot to restore his image in 2024 after making some bizarre comments and name-calling the year before, and he can put together a 4-0 season with an impressive performance against Covington. But you know Covington is just waiting to take down Buckley at the finish line.

In other notable main card action, featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo square off in the co-main event, and Manel Kape faces Bruno “Blindado” Silva in a bout that could determine the next challenger for flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja .

What: UFC Tampa

Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

When: Saturday December 14th. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10:00 p.m. ET, also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

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(The numbers in brackets indicate the representation MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley (10)

I hate to give too much credence to excuses, especially when they come from someone like Colby Covington, someone who is willing to say literally anything to stay relevant, but I’m assuming his foot is in the fight against Leon Edwards was broken. Don’t get me wrong, I think Edwards is testing him for five rounds anyway, but Covington looked particularly bad that night and not just regular bad.

Why do I mention this? Because I still think he has enough power to win fights against certain ranked opponents, and Joaquin Buckley could be one of them. In terms of the work Buckley has done to establish himself as a legitimate title contender, he has yet to face a stylistic duel like Covington. Buckley has solid offensive wrestling, defensively I have questions. Can he keep Covington away for five rounds?

Buckley isn’t the tactician that Edwards was, and as good as he looks at 170 pounds, he’s also not as difficult a puzzle to solve. You can beat Buckley with pressure, which happens to be Covington’s specialty. And if Covington takes him down, Buckley’s flashy moves in the championship rounds will look a lot less explosive.

As someone who has touted Buckley as a potential title challenger, even during his more difficult periods at middleweight, it may seem odd that I’m not picking him here, but I think this is a case of smart fight selection by Covington. If I run this again, Buckley might lash out at Covington, but I have a strange feeling that the circumstances are just right for Covington to pull off an upset.

Choose: Covington

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

Maybe I’m leaning too much towards the older crowd, but I also like Cub Swanson on Saturday Nights.

As was the case with Covington, on paper this seems like a good addition to the WEC original. Billy Quarantillo is a tough test for anyone weighing 145 pounds and he’ll have plenty of support from his fellow Floridians, but that will come down to striking, and that’s where Swanson still has an advantage over many featherweights. There’s no shame in being cornered by Swanson, who can keep up with the best and hit even after his 41st birthday.

If Quarantillo can bring that down, more power to him, but he’ll likely want to put on an entertaining show for the Tampa crowd, and that means he’ll have to match “Killer Cub” blow for blow. Swanson is no stranger to Fight of the Night awards and it’s safe to say he and Quarantillo will be fighting for another award on Saturday, with Swanson also taking home his winner’s check.

Choose: Swanson

Manel Kape (11) against Bruno Silva

I don’t understand the whole Manel Kape thing.

What’s the appeal here? He sure talks a big game. There are some great achievements on his resume, but he also has some stinkers. He always falls short against top-class competitors (with the exception of Kai Asakura, and that was five years ago!). At best, he’s Michael Page at flyweight, and that could be an insult to “Venom.”

OK, that was tough, especially considering that Kape’s deft striking style not only makes him the favorite against Bruno Silva, but also makes him an interesting opponent for Pantoja (even though on paper everyone looks like they have a chance against Pantoja, one of the reasons why he is). such a convincing champion). Is this the night Kape finally delivers?

No. People have been sleeping on Silva for a while, despite his four straight finishes and four straight Performance of the Night bonuses. I hear all the time that people are looking for flyweights with consistent stopping power, and there’s one that’s been right in front of us all along. I’m as confused by the disrespect towards Silva as I am by the hype surrounding Kape.

I’m doubling down here and could very well eat my words, but my gut feeling is that Silva is the true flyweight contender and he’ll submit Kape in the second or third round.

Choose: Silva

Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

This is the right matchmaking for Vitor Petrino. I understand why the Anthony Smith fight happened, and honestly Petrino just shit the bed in what should have been a promotion moment for him, but if we’re still assessing where he stands as a potential contender at 205 pounds, and hope to book him for fun fights, Dustin Jacoby is the right choice.

It pains me to say that Jacoby’s spoilsport days may be behind him. Jacoby’s MMA and kickboxing experience was a real advantage for him in his second appearance in the UFC, so even in fights where he loses, it feels like his opponent has really been tested. His kickboxing is some of the best in all of MMA and you can imagine a scenario where Petrino just can’t understand him and ends up on the wrong end of a decision.

Petrino has such an athletic advantage – and yes, I said the same thing about the Smith fight – that he can’t let Jacoby set the pace or get the upper hand in close contests. I believe in Petrino as a player in this league. So if he falls short here, I will have serious questions about his future.

Choose: Petrino

Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos

What a fascinating duel we have here.

If you want an example of how there are no easy fights in the bantamweight division, we have Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos, two fighters who are unranked but could give almost anyone in the top 15 a run for their money. Yanez has shown time and time again that he is an elite boxer, while Marcos has impressed with a flawless start to his 17-fight career. It’s a bloodbath in this division, man.

I like Yanez simply because I expect him to be able to turn up the volume when the fight calls for it, although Marcos’ distance control and timing are excellent. At the same time, if Marcos waits too long for the right moment, it allows Yanez to find a rhythm, and if Yanez is locked in, he is incredibly effective (and fun to watch!).

As tempting as it is to imagine Marcos maintaining his undefeated record and becoming a dark side contender in 2025, I can’t yet see him getting past Yanez in the list of contenders. Yanez wins a hard-fought decision that Marcos will learn a lot from as he pushes forward toward a promising future.

Choose: Yanez

Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos

We have two unknown properties here: Navajo Stirling is just 5-0 and fresh off the Contender Series, and Tuco Tokkos has a bit more experience, albeit against questionable competition. Let’s face it, this is the type of low-level light heavyweight fight the UFC is going for for the sole purpose of opening the main card with a bang.

It should be Stirling who wins the big victory here. As green as he is, he moves well and passes the eye test, as expected of a fighter looking to establish himself as a knockout artist. He uses his reach well, isn’t afraid to mix up martial arts, and the one-shot KO potential is there. Sometimes you wish you were more active, but his methodical style has served him well so far.

It will also be effective against Tokkos, who likes to step forward and impose his offense. This becomes difficult as Stirling takes longer to shoot at him and at some point Tokkos takes a wrong step and is knocked to the ground by a powerful blow.

Choose: Stirling

Preliminary rounds

Michael Johnson defeated. Ottman Azaitar

Drakkar Klose defeated. Joel Alvarez

Sean Woodson defeated. Fernando Padilla

Miles Johns defeated. Felipe Lima

Miranda Maverick defeated. Jamey Lyn Horth

Davey Grant defeated. Ramon Taveras

Josefine Knutsson defeated. Piera Rodríguez