No. 6 Incarnate Word travels to face No. 3 South Dakota State in the quarterfinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for December 14th at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN. The Jackrabbits defeated the Cardinals 45-24 in Week 2.

The winner advances to the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs, where they face the winner of No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State scores.

2024 FCS Playoff Series

Prediction record for 2024: 170-45
2022–23 record: 207–75

Start: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: South Dakota State (-19)
Series history: South Dakota State leads 1-0

Key Players: State of South Dakota

Mark Gronowski (QB): 185 for 296 (62.5%), 2,341 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 6 INTs, 313 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs

Amar Johnson (RB): 160 carries, 1,013 rushing yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 rushing TDs

Griffin Wilde (WR): 63 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, 16.1 YPC, 10 receiving TDs

Adam Bock (LB): 83 total tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 QBHs

Tucker Large (DB): 22 total tackles, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs

Main players: Incarnate Word

Zach Calzada (QB): 310 of 477 (64.99%), 3,533 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 8 INTs, 4 rushing TDs

Jalen Walthall (WR): 76 receptions, 1,224 receiving yards, 16.1 YPC, 14 receiving TDs

Roy Alexander (WR): 87 receptions, 1,016 receiving yards, 11.7 YPC, 12 receiving TDs

Dune Smith (LB): 76 total tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 QBHs

Mr Williams (LB): 75 total tackles, 13 TFLs, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 3PBUs, 11 QBHs, 5 FFs

Incarnate Word put some pressure on South Dakota State in the first game, but the Jackrabbits pulled away in the second half. These teams have improved since the Week 2 game, but several key areas defined the game. South Dakota State converted on 10 of 13 third-down attempts and kept Incarnate Word out of the end zone on numerous occasions in the red zone. The Cardinals will need to be more efficient in the red zone this weekend while also finding ways to get off the field on third downs.

Quarterback Mark Gronowski is really starting to get going for the Jackrabbits, throwing for almost 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns with no turnovers. After a few unfortunate injuries, Griffin Wilde was forced to take over the wide receiver room. Wilde leads the Jackrabbits with 1,014 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. The concern is that South Dakota State doesn’t have another pass catcher with over 200 receiving yards this season.

The bigger issue is that Incarnate Word allowed 230 rushing yards in the first matchup. South Dakota State’s rushing attack continued to thrive, eclipsing the 200-yard mark in four of the last five games. Amar Johnson leads the Jackrabbits with 1,013 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Angel Johnson is finding his rhythm after an injury earlier this season. Incarnate Word has held four of its last five opponents under 100 rushing yards, making this one of the most important matchups of the weekend.

Incarnate Word struggled to establish a lead against South Dakota State earlier this season. Luckily, quarterback Zach Calzada had one of his best performances of the season. He completed 65% of his passes for 3,533 yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Cardinals have two of the best wide receivers in the country, which caused problems for the Jackrabbits earlier this season. Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander combined for over 2,000 yards and 26 touchdowns.

Since giving up 350 passing yards against Incarnate Word, South Dakota State’s defense has held ten opponents under 200 passing yards and has the second-highest coverage grade in the country. Tucker Large missed the first game but has made a big impact since returning from injury, leading the Jackrabbits with three interceptions.

The biggest development for South Dakota State was the emergence of multiple playmakers along the defensive line. Defensive tackle Bryce Hawthorne has recorded 3.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in the last two games. Combined with an elite linebacker core led by Adam Bock and Caleb Francel, the Jackrabbits have generated negative plays on 10.2% of all defensive snaps.

The X-factor in this game is the defense of Incarnate Word, one of the most overlooked units in the nation. The Cardinals have excelled at creating negative plays and generating turnovers, forcing a turnover on 3.3% of all defensive snaps. It all starts with Dune Smith and Mister Williams, two of the most athletic linebackers in the FCS. The duo combined for 24.5 tackles and ten sacks. One of the biggest keys for Incarnate Word this weekend will be winning the turnover battle and keeping South Dakota State behind the scenes, something many teams have failed to do over the last two seasons.

Incarnate Word’s offense has the individual talent to win 1v1 duels, but the problem has been consistency. The Cardinals hit pauses in several games, which could be the difference between an upset and another loss to the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State currently plays at the national championship level. I expect the Jackrabbits to use their physical rushing attack to wear down the Incarnate Word defense and advance to the semifinals for the fifth straight year.

Prediction: South Dakota State (42-21)

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