Saturday night brings us an exciting contest between two college basketball heavyweights as the Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-2) take on the UConn Huskies (7-3) at Madison Square Garden. The Bulldogs come into this game after suffering their second overtime loss of the season with a 90-89 loss to Kentucky last Saturday. Their only other loss came against West Virginia in late November, but the Bulldogs still have an impressive record heading into mid-December. The Zags have wins over Baylor, Arizona St., San Diego St. and Indiana and are ranked 13th on the roster. The Huskies’ schedule wasn’t quite as difficult, ranking 256th in strength of schedule and failing to gain an advantage draw from it. UConn had a disastrous showing at the Maui Invitational, finishing last in the field with losses to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton. Despite the difficult start, Bob Hurley and his team responded well, earning wins against Baylor and a road win against Texas.

The biggest setback for UConn has been their defense, which ranks 87th in adjusted defensive rating, up from fourth last season. Their over-aggressive style has hurt them at times, and that is very evident when you see their opponents average 23.4 charity attempts per game. Their offense, which ranks 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency, has largely made up for their defensive woes. The Bulldogs were a much more well-rounded team, ranking in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. While I’m giving the Zags the edge on Saturday night, the value seems to be in the game total. These teams are among the top 5 offensive units, but the current overall score of 152.5 is just too high for my taste. If you exclude overtime, Gonzaga is giving up just 65.9 ppg, while UConn is doing even better at 62.6 ppg. The Huskies have been hurting defensively, but they’ve only held Baylor and Texas well below their season averages and are showing signs of improvement. Combined with the fact that UConn is playing at a snail’s pace and both teams haven’t played since last weekend, a lower scoring game is within reach. I bet on the current number.

Gonzaga vs UConn Prediction: Available at 152.5 (-110) at time of publication. Playable under this number.

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