Two of the most popular bantamweights return at UFC Tampa Bay: Adrian Yañez (17-5) meets undefeated youngster Daniel Marcos (16-0). It’s time to continue our UFC odds series with a Yañez Marcos prediction and tip.

Yañez will look to end 2024 on a high note after coming off a 2-0 record with two knockout losses in 2023. The former ranked contender bounced back from the first losing streak of his career with a first-round knockout win over Vinicius Salvador in May.

Marcos has done nothing but win for nearly a decade, but is only competing in the UFC for the fifth time. The Peruvian is looking to make a big jump at UFC Tampa Bay after beating John Castañeda by unanimous decision at UFC Louisville in June.

Here are the Yañez-Marcos UFC Tampa odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC Tampa odds: Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos odds

Adrian Yanez: +180

Daniel Marcos: -218

Over 2.5 rounds: -135

Under 2.5 rounds: +105

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Why Adrian Yañez Will win

Marcos isn’t the typical undefeated prospect that fans love to drool over. He is already 31 years old – surprisingly, he is eight months older than the fighter – but only started training MMA at 21, with no previous experience. There’s still a lot to like about his game, but he’s not the prodigy that Khabib Nurmagomedov was when he joined the UFC.

Not only is Yañez the best fighter Marcos has ever faced by a wide margin, but he will also get the fight he wants. Yañez is as pure a boxer as a modern MMA fighter can be, and in Marcos he faces an opponent who has only managed one takedown in his four UFC fights. The last time Marcos fought a fighter, he had big problems with Davey Grant, who defeated him 70-48 with significant punches and almost gave him his first defeat. Yañez also picked up a win over Grant in a Fight of the Night affair in 2021.

When Yañez is at his best, it usually takes him a few minutes to size up an opponent. Eleven of his 17 career victories – 65 percent – ​​have come by knockout, with only three of them lasting less than three minutes. In contrast, Marcos allowed his opponents to get past him as the fight progressed, just as John Castañeda almost managed to defeat him in his last fight with a last-minute headbutt.

Why Daniel Marcos Will win

Marcos will have to step out of his comfort zone to achieve this victory. While he loves to set the tone early and get ahead with his attacks, that’s exactly the trap Yañez likes to set to orchestrate his victories. Marcos is normally a striker, but in this match he has the wrestling advantage that he could convert. Like most, Yañez is almost certainly expecting a thrilling fight and a change in his game plan could surprise him.

A wrestling-heavy game plan is unlikely, but the only time Marcos landed a takedown in the UFC was against Grant when he boxed out on the feet. Yañez wants to strike from distance, and while that usually applies to Marcos as well, it would be more advantageous for him to close the gap and make this a dirty fight in the pocket.

When under pressure, Yañez can tend to engage from close range, where he has power but is extremely undisciplined defensively, largely due to his bad habit of being off-balance with the base and his chin to expose. In Yañez’s two UFC defeats, he was eliminated a total of three times. Marcos has landed three knockdowns in his last five fights, all of which came when he closed the distance.

Final Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos Prediction and selection

This fight will be a battle between two strikers who want to stand and throw. In 13 combined UFC fights, there was only one overall victory between them. The fighter who finds his groove first will claim victory, and historically in all-strikes fights that has been Yañez. Despite suffering knockout losses to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez, Marcos isn’t nearly as versatile as a striker.

This is a significant step up in competition for Marcos after defeating Castañeda, and a fight that Yañez jumped at. Marcos is rated undefeated by oddsmakers in his first fight in front of a full UFC crowd.

Final Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos Prediction & Pick: Adrian Yañez (+180)