Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva odds, tips and predictions

We have a flyweight bout between Manel Kape and Bruno Silva on Saturday and our UFC expert Tony Satori believes Kape’s ability to land punches at high volume will be the difference in this fight.

December 14, 2024 • 8:30 am ET

• 4 min reading

Photo by – Imagn Images.

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main card features a flyweight bout between ranked contenders Manel Kape and Bruno Silva.

In the UFC odds, Kape is listed as the big betting favorite at -380 via BET99, while Silva returns at +280.

Here are my free Kape vs. Silva predictions for tonight’s UFC event at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Kape vs Silva Prediction and Picks

Combat analysis

The pressure is heavy on Kape, who enters this fight as the No. 9 contender in the 125-pound class. I agree with Steam and there’s a lot to like about the 31-year-old nicknamed “Starboy.”

Kape is a high-volume hitter who lands with accuracy and has also shown solid defense on the feet. He avoids the heavy punches and has never been knocked out in 26 professional fights.

On the feet, Kape will have an advantage over Silva, who neither throws nor lands as quickly as Kape, but also defends less quickly. Silva’s path to victory likely lies on the mat, but I trust Kape’s 73% takedown defense to keep him on his toes, where he will certainly be a step ahead of Silva.

So why isn’t Kape an even bigger favorite? I believe he should be, and the only reason he isn’t is because of his three losses in his first seven fights in the UFC.

However, we need to look at the circumstances of these losses. The first was his debut against current champion Alexandre Pantoja, now considered one of the best 125-pounders of all time.

The second loss came immediately after for Matheus Nicolau, who was in the title conversation before his loss to Brandon Royval last year. Furthermore, this fight was a massive heist considering all 22 media results decided the fight in Kape’s favor.

Kape’s last and most recent loss came against Muhammad Mokaev, who, while controversial, is still 12-0 professionally.

Best best analysis

That being said, I think we missed the boat on value when it came to Kape’s moneyline odds, but I still see some value in the market for Method of Winning. Kape’s odds of winning are as follows:

Decision (-115)
KO/TKO (+275)
Submission (+900)

The longshot play here is clearly the submission prop, but that number isn’t wide enough for my liking. Kape is a striker and will prefer to stay on his feet against Silva, who will come into this fight with a tough game plan.

While that leaves the door open for Kape to create a submission after a Silva takedown, I trust Kape’s 73 percent takedown defense as well as the fact that Silva has never been professionally submitted except against a juiced Khalid Taha – a fight that later ended in a no contest.

That leaves the decision and KO/TKO props for Kape, and -115 is too short for me to pass up between those two options. Silva is extremely tough and hasn’t been knocked out in nearly a decade, and while Kape is a tough hitter, each of his last two wins have come by decision.

The oddsmakers view this fight the same way considering the fight going to decision is listed at -170.