The Rockets’ sputtering offense in the NBA Cup semifinals highlights a rise in expectations

The Rockets’ sputtering offense in the NBA Cup semifinals highlights a rise in expectations

LAS VEGAS – Sixty-eight seconds.

For 68 seconds, Houston Rockets center Alperen Şengün could only watch from the sidelines as his team gradually let go of the rope at the most inopportune time.

The large video screen hanging from the ceiling of T-Mobile Arena showed that the semifinals were far from over – the Oklahoma City Thunder led 84-79 with more than seven minutes left in the fourth quarter.

But as Şengün made his way to the scorer’s table, desperate to make an impact – or at least avoid a points drop – his body language suggested he had seen this film many times before.

For 68 seconds, Şengün watched as the Rockets worked to generate positive possessions on offense. A missed Open 3 here, a turnover there. Compound errors.

On the other hand, after seeing the Rockets do an admirable job defending for most of the game, the Thunder took advantage of minimal mistakes.

And just like elite teams, they punish. They are silent. It took just over a minute for Houston to look at the video screen and see that the deficit had grown from 5 points to 13. The game is over.

Shengün’s emotions boiled over. “F-!” he yelled, slamming both hands against his sides as he sulked back to the bench.

The collective disappointment of the Rockets players and coaching staff was due to the missed opportunity. In fact, Houston has been capable of playing in meaningful games for years, and against a Thunder team expecting a trip to the NBA Finals, it’s commendable that this team has prevailed over the competition three times this season. The pain after the game only made their internal growth and increased expectations even more apparent.

But this is a team that has gone from outcast to proud seemingly overnight. The Rockets didn’t come to Vegas for moral victories. They didn’t fight their way through the group stage and quarter-finals, defeating a bitter rival, only to end up lying on the ground instead of standing tall. The beauty of the NBA Cup was its presence on a national stage, giving audiences a behind-the-scenes look at the work of demanding teams, like the Rockets do behind closed doors. Instead, it was just a two-sided reminder of the defensive greatness coupled with the offensive deficiencies they are fighting to overcome.

“Sometimes it comes down to making shots,” coach Ime Udoka said after Houston’s 111-96 loss. “Especially in the first half, we protected them well enough – holding them to 41 – and if you get a few shots in, you’re probably up by double digits. The only way we like to attack is to stop and get out (and run). That’s where we built up our biggest lead. Everyone needs to shoot the ball a little better – you put a lot of pressure on your defense if you don’t make shots like that.”

The Rockets missed an impressive 35 three-pointers – most of which were open – and dropped the ball 16 times. Given that they were actually facing the league’s best defense, much of Houston’s offensive blunders were understandable. Even expected.

But Saturday night was no outlier. If anything, it was reinforcement. According to NBA.com tracking data, the Rockets rank 25th in 3-point percentage on “open” 3s, where the nearest defender is at least 4 to 6 feet away. Move further out and the Rockets get worse — third-worst in the NBA — on “wide-open” 3s where the nearest defender is 6 feet or more away.

Oklahoma City, which has built its success on defensive versatility – equal parts confidence and arrogance – was extremely comfortable keeping all five players below the fence to dominate the paint. The Thunder took a different look at the Rockets in the semifinals; Zone, box-and-one, traps and blitzes. But the recurring theme in OKC’s defensive coverage was confidence in their aggressive scheme and confidence in Houston’s inability to punish them for the shots they essentially dared them to take. The Rockets average 35.6 3s per game, but that number jumped to 46 on Saturday night.

They won’t win many games with Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green in the starting lineup combining for just 2 of 19 shots from downtown, but on paper they have some players who should be capable of at least league-average shooting from distance to achieve. It just doesn’t click at the moment.

“Honestly, I feel like it’s not the hits,” Jabari Smith Jr. said at his locker. “If we were recording, it wouldn’t be a question or a problem. We would win. They are open looks. We are completely open and these are the people who should make these recordings. They just don’t go in. There’s no need to fix it – you’ve seen what it looks like when we record.”

In December alone, the Rockets failed to break the 100-point mark three times. Houston is a fantastic defensive team. They recover with the best and are dynamic when coming out of defensive stops in transition. However, your second lever is faulty, suggesting a possible stylistic issue. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets rank just 25th in half-court points per 100 games (90.5), despite being the NBA’s best offensive rebounding team. (Houston won the offensive rebound battle 19-4, but converted that into just 19 second-chance points.)

When Udoka outlined the Rockets’ offensive improvement at the end of the 2023-24 season and strengthened it during training camp and preseason, his plans focused on exploiting his roster’s strengths – speed, athleticism and spacing. Most NBA teams dream of “speed and space,” but Houston is, at least on paper, one of the few teams capable of putting those plans into action.

But by mid-December, the Rockets are in the middle of the pack in terms of pace and are near the bottom of the field in terms of outside shooting. At times it almost looks like Houston is still figuring out how to play each other and where the best moves should come from – which shouldn’t be the case for a team that’s had a year of continuity behind it with playoff hopes.

Before Saturday’s game, Udoka changed his typical practice style and worked on offense before moving to the other side of the ball, indicating he had an understanding of the work that needs to be done on offense.

There are multiple creators, enforcers and shooters on the roster, but if their offense looks as disjointed as it has on numerous occasions, a return to the drawing board may be necessary. Houston’s starting lineup of VanVleet, Green, Smith, Şengün and Dillon Brooks has played over 300 minutes more than Udoka’s second-most lineup, and while they are still positive overall (+3.6), their offensive rating is up the level of a bottom-five team. Udoka has a history of leaning heavily on his starters, which gives more impetus to eliminating half-court errors.

VanVleet has often spoken about his relationship with Udoka, highlighting their ability to have honest conversations and provide feedback based on how the product looks on the court. However, some optimizations need to be made. Maybe it’s as simple as adding second-year winger Cam Whitmore back into the equation. Whitmore shot nearly 36 percent from 3 at decent volume as a rookie and has played well in his frequent appearances in the G League.

“What I will say publicly is we have to figure it out,” VanVleet said. “We have to get better offensively. Otherwise, I won’t really talk about what we want to do here. The coach can probably give you a better answer. My job as a point guard is to figure out how to make this team perform better, and that starts with myself. Otherwise, everything else is sorted out behind the scenes and finding something that feels better so we have more flow and consistency can achieve.”

(Photo by Alperen Şengün: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

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