The closer the holiday gets, the greater the desire for a white Christmas. Recent cold blasts across the eastern half of the United States have many hopeful that the pattern will be favorable for a snowpack on Christmas morning, but that may not be the case for much of the Lower 48.

So what is a white Christmas? It occurs when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn’t necessarily have to snow on the actual holiday. Even a trace of snow doesn’t count.

White Christmas forecast 2024

It’s no surprise that the chances of having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning are greatest in some of the higher elevations of the West.

There’s also a good chance of a white Christmas from North Dakota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as well as parts of northern New England.

A colder pattern is expected to return to the eastern half of the U.S. by Christmas, but a widespread snowstorm is unlikely. The warmer trend to the west and a storm track further north, closer to the Canadian border, could limit snowpack in the lower elevations of the region.

How typical is a white Christmas?

The map below shows the places where there is a historic chance of a white Christmas each year. The odds are based on averages from 1991 to 2020.

Outside of the Mountain West, the far northern plains and northern New England, there is not much territory where the chance of a white Christmas is over 50%.

(192 hours: Optimize your forecast even further with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our website Premium Pro Experience.)

Last year, only 17.6% of the Lower 48 experienced a white Christmas. This was the lowest percentage since records began in 2003. Outside of the higher elevations in the West, there was an area of ​​snow in the central and northern Plains, as well as some spots in the interior Northeast.

In 2022, 53% of the Lower 48 experienced a white Christmas, the highest percentage since 2009. Much of the West, Midwest and interior Northeast were covered in snow. This was primarily due to Winter Storm Elliott, which brought extensive snow and bitterly cold temperatures.

On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 has snow on the ground at Christmas, according to 21 years of data compiled by NOHRSC. Since 2003, these percentages have fluctuated wildly from year to year, from 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous US in 2009.

Regional historical odds

Let’s take a closer look at various white Christmas statistics, including annual probability, the number of white Christmases in each city’s historical records, and the last time they occurred.

The annual probability is based on National Weather Service data from 1991 to 2020.

Northeast

There wasn’t much snow in the Northeast last Christmas; Even areas where white Christmases are more common, like Syracuse and Buffalo, had no snow last year.

While there was no snow last year, New York City saw up to 8 inches of snow fall on the ground at Christmas (in 1912), and in Washington, DC (2009), the highest snow depth at Christmas is 7 inches.

New England

White Christmases were in short supply in New England last year.

Both Burlington, Vermont, and Caribou, Maine, had a brown Christmas in 2023, but last Christmas there was more than 30 inches of snow on the ground.

The record snow depth in Boston on Christmas morning is 11 inches (1995). In Concord, New Hampshire, up to 26 inches were measured on the ground (1970). Boston last had a white Christmas in 2009, while Concord came within inches of the ground in 2021.

There was no white Christmas in the Midwest in 2023 either.

There’s a 96 percent chance of a white Christmas in Marquette, Michigan, but that didn’t happen last year. It was a mild Christmas with temperatures in the 60s as far north as Chicago.

Cleveland and Detroit have a maximum Christmas snow depth of 13 inches (in 2005 and 1951, respectively). The last time both had a white Christmas was in 2022.

levels

Last year, a few white Christmas wishes came true on the Plains.

There was 2 inches of snow on the ground in Pierre, South Dakota, and 4.2 inches of snow fell during the day. However, Minneapolis and Duluth, Minnesota, and Bismarck, North Dakota, where white Christmases are more common, had no snow last year.

In 2022, there was an inch of snow on the ground for Christmas in Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri.

west

Parts of the West actually had a white Christmas last year.

In Billings, Montana, there was an inch of snow on the ground in 2023. The record Christmas snow depth was 9 inches in 1984.

Seven years ago, Seattle and Portland experienced their sixth white Christmas on record. There was 2 inches of snow in Seattle that Christmas morning.

Not surprisingly, Alaska, Anchorage and Fairbanks had snow on the ground on Christmas morning last year, with 26 inches and 18 inches, respectively.

Yes, it happened in the south

Christmas snowpack isn’t just a northern thing. For several years, parts of the southern United States marveled at the sight of a white Christmas. But it has been more than 10 years since a white Christmas was celebrated in much of the South.

The extended cold and snow reached as far as Tennessee in 2022. In 2022, a trace of snow was reported on the ground in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Memphis, Tennessee. The largest Christmas snowfall in Memphis (10 inches) was recorded in 1963, while the Tulsa record is 6 inches in 2009.

In 2020, Knoxville, Tennessee (2 inches) and Roanoke, Virginia (1 inch) had a white Christmas. Nashville had a trace of snow on Christmas Day 2020.

Three relatively recent events led to an unusual blanket of snow on Christmas Day in parts of the South:

-In 2009, Oklahoma City experienced a record snowstorm (13.5 inches) and Dallas (2 inches) experienced one of only two recorded white Christmases.

-In 2004, Corpus Christi, Texas experienced a record snowstorm (4.4 inches) and Brownsville (1.5 inches) had its first day of measurable snow since 1895. Brownsville is at the same latitude as Miami, Florida.

– In 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a severe arctic cold outbreak that gave both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches) and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches) their only white Christmases. Jacksonville, Florida missed a white Christmas by a day when an inch of snow fell on Christmas Eve morning. By Christmas Day it had melted.

Linda Lam is senior meteorologist at Weather.com. Growing up in Massachusetts, she developed a fascination with winter storms and hurricanes, which led her to pursue a career in meteorology.