The question is being asked more and more frequently. Will we have a white Christmas here in Michigan?

Northern Michigan typically has no problems with a white Christmas. Historically, Southern Michigan is on the verge of a white Christmas.

Statistics show that Detroit and Ann Arbor have a white Christmas four out of ten years. Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Lansing have a white Christmas half the time. Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo are 60% white at Christmas. Traverse City and the snowbelts of northwest Michigan typically have a white Christmas three out of four years. The Western UP is white 90% of the time at Christmas.

What is the official definition of a white Christmas? In meteorology, we call 1 inch of snow on the ground a white Christmas.

The weather late this week and a weather system around Christmas Eve give southern Michigan even a half-decent chance of a white Christmas.

Temperatures are expected to be just a few degrees above freezing on Christmas Day. It won’t be warm enough to quickly melt what little snow there will be on the ground.

There will be some snow at the end of this week.

The best computer models show a weather system around Christmas Eve morning. Here is the average surface weather forecast for Christmas Eve. This type of storm system typically produces 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Although it is admittedly far in the future, Christmas Day is currently looking dry. This weekend we will have a good sense of the exact weather for Christmas.

As afternoon temperatures will be very cold this weekend and will remain around freezing just before Christmas, there should still be snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

Our data shows there will be 2 to 5 inches of snow across Michigan from now through Christmas.

Here is finally the very early temperature forecast for Christmas. It’s a mild forecast, but not warm enough for a major meltdown.

I’m starting to feel a little optimistic because most of Michigan will have at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

Let’s carry on together and hope for a few more centimeters of snow.