Justin Jefferson will look to bounce back from his worst record of the season in Game 1 against the Chicago Bears when he faces them again in Week 15 on Monday Night Football.

• Jefferson posted a stat line of 2/27/0 against the Bears in a Week 12 win
• Catches and yards were both season lows for Jefferson
• Jefferson ranks second in the league with 1,170 receiving yards

We’ve already delved deep into our Bears vs. Vikings prediction as part of our Week 15 NFL predictions, but now it’s time to dig a little deeper.

The Monday Night Football odds have the Vikings as touchdown favorites with an O/U of 43.5 points, and these odds are part of the thought process for our Justin Jefferson player predictions.

Justin Jefferson MNF player prop selection

Monday NFL odds. Follow NFL scores for the latest line moves and matchup information.

• Justin Jefferson’s touchdown prediction: All-time touchdown scorer (+100 over Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Jefferson Prop Pick: Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Jefferson’s Prop Pick: Longest reception for 26.5 yards (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Justin Jefferson’s touchdown prediction against the Bears

Justin Jefferson is a touchdown scorer at all times ⭐⭐⭐

I usually prefer to swing for the fences when making a touchdown prediction, such as betting on a player to score or score multiple touchdowns in a particular half. But anytime I can get plus mod odds on a player of Jefferson’s caliber scoring at any time, that’s a great value.

Jefferson broke a six-game drought without touchdowns with a two-touchdown performance against the Atlanta Falcons last week.

This is a three-star play as Jefferson quarterback Sam Darnold has an active franchise record with multiple touchdown passes and zero interceptions in four straight games.

Caesars is the only one of our top sports betting sites that allows you to place a bet on Jefferson’s touchdown scorer at plus mod odds at any time, as the odds for all other contenders are -105.

Best odds: +100 over Caesars | Implied probability: 50.00%

Prop Predictions by Justin Jefferson

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Justin Jefferson Over 81.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐

In his last six games, Jefferson ranked third among all wide receivers with 524 receiving yards. That’s impressive considering he had a 27-yard blunder against the Bears in that span.

In that Week 12 meeting, teammates Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson set career highs in receiving yards with 162 and 114 yards, respectively.

Conventional wisdom would say that the success of these two would take the defensive attention away from Jefferson and perhaps force Darnold to force the ball more to his No. 1 wide receiver to make up for his first poor performance.

As of Week 9, Addison ranks in the top 15 of 56 qualifying wide receivers in yards per route run. And while that would impact Jefferson’s running performance, I expect it to mean more positive things for him.

This over is up to -118 at Caesars (with an implied probability of 54.13%), so I’m taking advantage of the best price at bet365. With bet365’s -110 odds, a winning bet of $10 would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 26.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In passes at least 10 yards downfield, Darnold ranks first in first downs with 81, is tied for first in passing touchdowns with 12 (including a league-high four such passes in the last week), is tied for first in yards per attempt ranks second (13.9) and is fourth in yards per attempt completion rate (59%).

Darnold also went 5-for-5 last week and totaled a season-high 112 yards on passes outside the pocket. In consecutive games and in 10 of 13 games this season, he has hit Jefferson on at least one pass of 27 yards.

This is a four-star matchup as Chicago has used single-high safety coverage 64% of the time since Week 4. Unlike teams that play two-high safeties, this should make it easier for Darnold to get to Jefferson on at least one deep throw.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook where you can back this over with odds over -115.

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%

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