The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is becoming increasingly clear, especially since we last checked in mid-November. Three teams – the Giants, Patriots and Panthers – have at least a 10% chance of clinching the top spot, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections, and a fourth – the Raiders – could be back in contention with a chance of losing on Monday evening.

That’s why we asked our NFL Nation reporters to assess each of these bottom-tier franchises ahead of the final two games of Week 15. How did each team lose control of their season? Can it win any more regular season games? Are we in for any big changes this offseason? Finally, NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller twisted things further and suggested how each team could use the No. 1 pick. Which teams need a franchise quarterback and which could take a different route?

Let’s start with the Giants, who are favorites for the top pick after a nine-game losing streak.

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CAR | LV | NE | NYG

FPI chance of getting the No. 1 pick: 40.1%
FPI chance of getting a top five selection: 90.7%

The biggest problem this season: The Giants’ problems start with their offense, which is averaging a league-low 14.4 points per game. They’ve gone through four quarterbacks this season and can’t keep any of them up. But it’s more than that. The Giants need playmakers outside of rookie Malik Nabers, an improved offensive line and more depth throughout the roster.

Estimate the remaining schedule: It’s not the most difficult remaining schedule in the world, especially considering the Eagles may have nothing to play in Week 18 since they’ve already secured a playoff spot. The Falcons also have problems and the Colts are hardly world champions. Still, the Giants will be underdogs in all three games and can easily finish the season with an epic 12-game deficit.

What we hear about off-season moves: It’s hard to believe an organizational overhaul is possible considering the Giants haven’t won since October 6th. It doesn’t matter if owner John Mara said in late October that coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen were safe. Things change when you have the worst record in the league in the third year of a regime. And that goes for impending free agents like wide receiver Darius Slayton, safety Jason Pinnock, defensive back Isaiah Simmons and edge rusher Azeez Ojulari want return? – Jordan Raanan

What they could do with the top pick: The Giants need to be all-in on a quarterback after releasing a former first-rounder in Daniel Jones. With the lowest TD/INT ratio in the league at 0.9, they are desperate to reset under center. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders – who has thrown 35 touchdown passes this season – is my top-ranked quarterback in the class. His surgical accuracy, pocket-sized toughness, keen vision and talent for explosive plays make him the best choice for New York. –Miller

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FPI chance of getting the No. 1 pick: 25.1%
FPI chance of getting a top five selection: 89.4%

The biggest problem this season: The Patriots have had nine different offensive line configurations in 13 games due to injuries, poor performances and missed personnel evaluations. They rank 32nd in pass block win rate, and there’s no one in the receiving corps that scares opponents. They have also regressed on defense, which is surprising given first-year head coach Jerod Mayo’s experience as a Patriots linebacker and defensive assistant.

Estimate the remaining schedule: ESPN Analytics rates the Patriots’ final stretch – at Bills, vs. Chargers and vs. Bills – as the toughest in the NFL. The Pats’ best chance of winning could come in Week 18 if the playoff-bound Bills decide to rest their starters and not compete for a better ranking.

What we hear about off-season moves: Since the Patriots have the most cap space in the league next season (approximately $96 million, according to the Roster Management System), expect them to be aggressive in terms of roster construction. It would be a surprise if Mayo and first-year executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf don’t return, barring a competitive collapse at the end of the season. Owner Robert Kraft acknowledged there would likely be growing pains for both early this season. – Mike Reiss

What they could do with the top pick: Every position outside of quarterback is on the Patriots’ need list, making them a very interesting team to pick if they have the first pick. As Mike mentioned above, offensive tackle is high on the Patriots’ priority list as they begin building a solid core around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. is the highest-ranked player at the position with a top-five overall grade on my board.

Banks has the highest pressure percentage allowed in FBS at left tackle at just 0.3% over 696 snaps. A trade would be in play for the Patriots if a quarterback-needy team wanted to get to the top, but they shouldn’t be interested in going back too far. –Miller

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FPI chance of getting the No. 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI chance of getting a top five selection: 86.1%

The biggest problem this season: The porous defense. It began with the losses of Pro Bowl defensive lineman Derrick Brown (knee) in the opening game and veteran middle linebacker Shaq Thompson (Achilles) in Week 2. The unit was too thin on talent to survive and became the league’s worst overall and against the run, making it particularly difficult to be competitive.

Estimate the remaining schedule: The Panthers were the favorites against Dallas on Sunday for the first time in 34 games. It’s questionable whether they’ll come to the fore in any of the final three games against Arizona, Tampa Bay and Atlanta, all of whom are fighting for playoff spots. The Panthers could easily lose all three and finish 3-14.

What we hear about off-season moves: They won’t be looking for a quarterback. Despite a career-high four-turnover game on Sunday, quarterback Bryce Young played well enough to give him a shot at the starting job next season, which he took back from Andy Dalton in Week 8 after Dalton injured his thumb in a car accident had injured. The Panthers will actively search for an edge rusher this offseason via free agency and the draft. – David Newton

What they could do with the top pick: With Young’s resurgence, the Panthers need help at numerous other spots on their roster. Travis Hunter, the two-way star from Colorado, is a great fit here. Hunter would give Young a dynamic, fast, game-changing wide receiver who could grow alongside Xavier Legette, and he could also play cornerback, at least situationally. The Panthers are hungry for impact players, and this year’s Heisman Trophy winner is an example of that. Hunter has 14 touchdown catches on offense and four interceptions on defense this season. –Miller

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FPI chance of getting the No. 1 pick: 8.1%
FPI chance of getting a top five selection: 48.8%

The biggest problem this season: No quarterback. Sure, the Raiders gave Gardner Minshew a two-year, $25 million contract and Aidan O’Connell returned after a strong finish to his rookie season. But injuries and ineffectiveness have stifled Las Vegas’ offense. Minshew was benched three times before a broken collarbone ended his season in Week 12. O’Connell broke his right thumb before being sidelined with a bone bruise on his left knee. Desmond Ridder is expected to start Monday night’s game against the Falcons.

Estimate the remaining schedule: Next week’s game against the Jaguars could be a tie-breaker for the No. 1 pick, as the winner is likely out of the running for the top pick. The Raiders then travel to New Orleans, where they may face former franchise quarterback Derek Carr. The Saints have been hit by just as many serious injuries. Las Vegas closes out at home against the Chargers.

What we hear about off-season moves: Raiders owner Mark Davis recently said that coach Antonio Pierce and general manager Tom Telesco aren’t necessarily a package deal. That means one could return next season without the other. The Raiders also have 16 unrestricted free agents scheduled. The elephant in the room is new minority owner Tom Brady and what decision-making responsibility he will have this offseason. – Paul Gutierrez

What they could do with the top pick: It’s quarterback or bust for the Raiders after missing out on the top six passers in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Sanders will be in the game here, but Miami’s Cam Ward will also be in this conversation with his dual-threat ability (36 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores this season). With Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West, the Raiders need a dynamic quarterback who can carry their team’s offense and keep them at least somewhat competitive in their division. Both Ward and Sanders have proven they are capable of doing so, with the second-most (4,123) and third-most (3,926) passing yards in the country, respectively. –Miller