Well, Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season is here and we know the entire AFC playoff picture. I mean, we don’t know the seeds or anything, but seven teams have a better than 90% chance of making the AFC playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. According to analysis writer Seth Walder, this is the first time this has happened in Week 15 in the ESPN-FPI era (since 2008). And remember, week 15 used to be the third to last week! We still have three weeks of AFC football left and it’s basically all about the seedings. You better enjoy this NFC West divisional race while you can — it’s pretty much the only excitement left.

Every Tuesday, I fast forward the previous week’s NFL games and look at what the major storylines mean and what’s next. We take a first look at the episodes of Monday Night Football, breaking down a key trend or two and highlighting some key individual players and plays. There will be a film. There will be statistics (a whole section of them). And it will be fun.

This week we take a deep dive into how Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell led this Minnesota team to the playoffs with Sam Darnold under center. Is he the new Sean McVay as the NFL’s trendy offensive mastermind and quarterback guru? Are we somehow still underestimating what he has done this season? We also analyze the Lions’ chances of overcoming their injury streak and still win the Super Bowl, breaking down the Defensive Player of the Year vote and highlighting the brilliance of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Let’s get in.

Jump to a section:
The big thing: O’Connell is the new McVay
Second point of view: Lions can still win the Super Bowl
Mailbag: Answering questions from… you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 15 Stats
“Monday Night Football” spin

The big thing: Kevin O’Connell-Sam Darnold is the new Sean McVay-Jared Goff

Each week, this column begins with a comprehensive look at a key play, player or trend from previous NFL action. What does this mean for the rest of the season?

In Week 3, I wrote about Darnold, Justin Fields and Andy Dalton – three veteran quarterbacks with surprisingly strong starts. I was wary of the 3-0 Vikings, who had just pulled off a clean sweep against the Texans, in large part because of Darnold’s history of shaky quarterback play. Here’s what I wrote back then:

“The question facing Darnold and the Vikings is whether they can sustain this. It’s incredibly difficult to outsmart every Sunday opponent for a month, two months, three, four months. Almost everyone who can do that comes from that offensive lineage – Sean McVay.” Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel’s offense is far more similar to McVay’s than Shanahan and McDaniel’s, and McVay has opted for the big upgrade in quarterback (Matthew Stafford ) to make his life easier. Winning at the board every week for 20+ weeks is just too much of a challenge.