Deal volumes in 2025 could more than double compared to the depths of the post-pandemic drought if the largest expected deals materialize, data compiled by Bloomberg show. However, it’s not a get out of jail free card for companies with troubled balance sheets.

“Some PE-backed deals are for premium assets that grow with size, and others need to address leverage and find a valuation that can excite buyers,” said Jimmy Williams, head of West Coast Technology at Jefferies Financial Group Inc ECM. “In the latter case, there is a tension between what investors are willing to pay and what sponsors may be willing to accept for companies they have held for some time.”

Absence of tech IPO

The state of US IPOs can be judged by the fact that there have been no technology debuts since 2021. The industry typically accounts for the bulk of deal flow, but this year it accounted for less than a fifth of proceeds on U.S. exchanges, data compiled by Bloomberg Show shows.

This is finally about to change, after a slow drip of success stories.

Reddit Inc. and Astera Labs Inc. are among the best-performing debuts this year. Last week, ServiceTitan Inc. priced its initial public offering well above an already expanded offering range, and its stock price rose 42% on the first day.

Several companies that had been weighing initial public offerings in the first half of 2026 are now targeting the second half of 2025 instead after seeing shares of ServiceTitan and OneStream Inc. trade at a premium to their peers, said Paul Abrahimzadeh, co- Head of ECM at Citigroup Inc for North America.

“You can feel people evolving in the venture community,” Abrahimzadeh said. “When talking to VCs on the boards of private companies, no one wants to wait; They need to show LPs that they are returning capital and generating income.”

It helps that backers have shown flexibility in valuations that reflect pandemic-era assumptions.

“It’s becoming apparent that companies are willing to accept relegation rounds when they go public,” said Keith Canton, JPMorgan head of Americas ECM. “A down round does not impact how IPOs trade, so sponsors and management teams recognize that it is more important to get the process started.”

“We enter 2025 with the expectation that we will see a very active US IPO market – monetizations from large sponsors, more consumer and technology assets and a fintech pipeline that we have not seen in several years ​developed,” said Daniel Burton-Morgan, head of the Americas ECM syndicate at Bank of America Corp.

Swedish digital payments company Klarna Group Plc is a leader and confidentially filed for a U.S. listing in November. Fee-free fintech Chime Financial Inc. is also headed for a 2025 debut, Bloomberg News reported.

The potential for deregulation around cryptoassets has also fueled interest in possible debuts in the industry, including Circle Internet Financial Ltd. and the trading platform eToro, woke up again.

Not everyone complained that the technology has moved out of the spotlight.

“We saw real breadth in the sectors that drove the IPO market this year,” said Eddie Molloy, global co-head of ECM at Morgan Stanley. “Activity this year was partly dominated by technology and healthcare and was much more balanced,” he said, adding that he expects this to continue in 2025.

Banner year

With the market pricing in rate cuts and Trump saying he has no plans to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, the expectation of a default makes for a banner year for many.

“Greater macroeconomic stability, the election behind us and an environment that appears ripe for more capital markets growth,” said Elizabeth Reed, global head of equity syndicate at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “Those are the technicals we’re looking at and feeling overall . “We look forward to increased activity in 2025.”

The low interest rate environment, coupled with a Trump administration that is mostly seen as a boon for acquisitions, could lead to corporations and private equity firms becoming active buyers. That could mean potential public companies opt for a quick sale instead, according to Jill Ford, co-head of ECM at Wells Fargo.

“The IPO market is recovering and recovering, but it’s not catastrophic yet, so you have to look at any process as two-pronged because there’s a very real possibility that they go down the M&A route,” Ford said in an interview. “Especially given an easing regulatory environment and healthy balance sheets and a strong currency.”

It’s hard to predict what Trump policies will be implemented in office, but with so many financiers lined up for his administration, many are betting he won’t throw off Wall Street.

“Everyone is probably in the ‘it’s too early to tell’ category when it comes to how much of the campaign rhetoric will come to light,” said Tom Swerling, global head of ECM at Barclays Plc. “The market is positive about the likely benefits of a Trump presidency.”

(Updates with Goldman Sachs quote in 26th paragraph.)

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