The biggest snowfall event so far this season is expected to occur across much of Minnesota on Thursday. Winter storm warnings are issued for much of Minnesota.

A well-organized clipper ship turns southeast toward Minnesota. The system will produce snow in the Red River Valley before midnight. Snow will fall quickly between about 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Thursday.

The heaviest snowfall will fall on Thursday morning. There is already snow on the ground for the morning drive to work on Thursday. Snowfall rates of a half inch to 1 inch per hour are expected for several hours Thursday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model still appears to have a good handle on the system. The following forecast model loop runs between midnight and 6 a.m. Thursday.

Forecast models continue to indicate a broad snow zone of 3 to 7 inches across most of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. It still looks like there will be a sharp cutoff with lower snowfall amounts south of the Twin Cities.

This trend is clearly visible in NOAA’s latest 18Z NAM 3 km snowfall output:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model predicts even heavier snowfall amounts of up to 8 to 9 inches in the storm’s sweet spot:

The best chance of seeing higher totals of around 9 inches appears to be north of the Twin Cities.

Temperatures will remain below freezing in the snow zone on Thursday, making roads challenging.

Cool weather in the teens will continue Friday and Saturday, with sub-zero lows in the north.

It looks like there will be enough snow for a white Christmas (at least 1 inch of snow on the ground).

Christmas week brings a prolonged thaw with highs in the 40s possible after Christmas Day.

Stay safe out there, Minnesota.