After weeks on the road, the Zags finally return to the comfort of the kennel. On Wednesday, December 18, at 6:00 p.m. Pacific time, Gonzaga will face Nicholls State at the McCarthy Athletic Center, back in front of its loyal fans and with all the comforts of home.

It was a tough time for the Bulldogs. They have lost three games in the last three weeks. Two games were grueling overtime battles, and the other had only one possession left before it would become a grueling overtime battle. All three losses were heartbreakingly close and very winnable games for the Zags. Still, the team some had predicted could remain undefeated if they lose three games in such a short space of time.

At their peak, this year’s Zags have shown moments of basketball brilliance that put them squarely in the top-five discussion. However, the rocky start to the season has caused the AP rankings to plummet from No. 3 to No. 13. (Can we even call that a “crash”?) We’ve seen this year’s team grapple with a variety of game-changing issues: personnel chemistry, coaching adjustments, foul issues, late-game scoring, interior dominance, inconsistent shooting, and sluggishness crucial moments.

However, we have seen this film before.

The Zags had big problems in the winter of 2023. Between December 6 and January 12, Gonzaga went 4-5, suffering losses to Washington, San Diego State, UConn and, most shockingly, Santa Clara. For the first time since 2016, they fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely. Fans mourned. Clothes were rented. Explosives flew. Hair was pulled. The sky seemed to be falling.

But then the Zags pulled a rabbit out of the hat. They adapted, fixed their mistakes and finished the season like a true Final Four contender.

This year’s team is returning 81% of its points from last season, which accounts for a large portion of its personnel. In other words, the squad currently stumbling through December is largely the same group that stumbled through last December – and also the same squad that found a way to thrive when it mattered most.

Those of us who have experienced a winter in Spokane can attest that the cold, dark, and constantly gray conditions of December can dull the spirit. Add to that some of the most aggressive cold and flu viruses circulating like wildfire, and who among us can say we’ve survived an entire winter in the Lilac City absolutely fine? That’s not an excuse, but it might make things a little more understandable.

Of course, the bad weather and rumors of illness can’t completely make up for the tough basketball we’ve been seeing lately. But before we declare doom and gloom, let’s remember that these early-season stumbles aren’t unprecedented — and the Zags have a track record of finding their way when it matters most.

(I refer you to this outstanding article by Peter Woodburn from December 2022 for context in December-January in Zagville).

Now is the time for the Zags to restart, improve, and begin the work of solidifying their identity as one of the best basketball teams in the country, because they absolutely are. The journey begins against Nicholls State.

The matchup

The Colonels of Nicholls State currently have a 7-4 record and are atop the Southland Conference. Fans expecting a simple, one-sided bulldozer with the bulldog may want to adjust their expectations. This could be invigorating – and dare I say it: Fun?-Game for the Zags. Nicholls State is scrappy, energetic and chaotic. They rely on an aggressive, high-turnover defense designed to make opponents uncomfortable.

This team is also impressively deep. Due to some injury issues early in the season, the Colonels currently have 11 players averaging 15 or more minutes per game, so no one on their roster will be hesitant. The Zags can expect fresh legs one wave at a time.

Luckily, the Zags have Ryan Nembhard. In my opinion, the best point guard in college basketball. And for most of his four-year college career, he has logged more than 35 minutes per game without showing fatigue. Unless Nicholls State’s backcourt finds the strength to keep up defensively, Ryan will split them up in the pick-and-roll for the majority of regulation time.

Offensive game plan

Nicholls State’s offense is designed to be as fast and fluid as its defense (however, the consistency with which they achieve this has been lacking so far). Lacking size or a true star player, they instead rely on quick ball movement, opportunistic scoring opportunities and a team of athletic (if undersized) bigs. They are adept at crashing the boards and finding scoring opportunities in transition, something the Zags desperately need practice on defense, as shown against Kentucky and UConn.

Although the Colonels are not a perfectly oiled machine, they are impressively adaptable and dangerous. In just 11 games, five different players led the team in scoring and another five led in rebounding. They’re on a five-game winning streak and thrive on playing the hot hand, keeping defenses unsettled and finding new ways to score. For the Zags, this is the kind of test they need right now – a fierce opponent that will force them to maintain the pace on offense and remain sharp and disciplined on defense.

Key players to watch

Nicholls State is led by guard Byron Ireland, who averages 13 points and 4 rebounds per game. He is their most consistent goalscorer, a strong backcourt defender and plays more than 30 minutes per game. Ireland will have the ball in his hands often and a feel for the basket off the dribble, so it will be up to Battle, Nembhard and Hickman to neutralize him and keep him out of the lane. Luckily for the Zags, Ireland isn’t much of a threat – he’s only shooting 19% from distance this season. Let him shoot; Just keep the ball away from the paint.

Most of Nicholls State’s perimeter scoring comes from guard Trae English, who shoots 38% of his shots from distance but only contributes 7.5 points per game. He’s shifty, and if Gonzaga can deny him his good looks, the Colonels’ offense will be under pressure.

One bright spot for the Zags amid the chaos of the last few weeks has been Dusty Stromer, particularly on defense. Few have said that he considers Dusty a starter despite coming off the bench, and he needs an average of 24 minutes per game to prove it. While he hasn’t yet maximized his scoring potential, he’s still hitting 47% while playing outstanding perimeter defense, putting his man in the right spots and preventing clear looks at the rim. Stromer is able to keep the Colonels’ shooters away from the 3-point line while grabbing key rebounds while neutralizing Ireland in the backcourt.

Up front, Nicholls State is undersized, with no one taller than 6 feet tall. This could be a perfect opportunity for Graham Ike to bounce back, especially after his quiet 3-point performance against UConn. However, the Colonels’ Mekhi Collins punched above his weight. He is an exceptional athlete, averaging nearly 7 rebounds per game in just 20 minutes. Offensively, he lives above the rim, and the Zags will need to focus on boxing out, crashing the boards and igniting their transition game to capitalize on that size difference. Capable of averaging double-digit rebounds per game, Michael Ajayi will need to continue his upward trend to take advantage of those transition opportunities from the defensive end.

Key to the game

The biggest question for Gonzaga right now is simple: How do you get the greatest number of players to play well on the same night? Sure, there are difficult games – especially at the start of the season. But as we saw against UConn and Kentucky, the Zags can’t afford to have three to five players having off nights at the same time, even if a handful of others step up. Inconsistency is what has killed the Zags so far this year. Although Khalif Battle has settled into his role and Ryan Nembhard has absolutely impressed defenders in the pick-and-roll, the Zags need reliable frontcourt offense and better rim protection to beat quality opponents like Kentucky and UConn.

Mark Few’s system thrives on balance. It requires a unified team attack on both sides of the field. Until the Zags find that balance and get consistent contributions from the greatest number of players in the lineup, they will continue to struggle.

An early season matchup against Nicholls State is the perfect opportunity to start building that consistency. With a big matchup against UCLA looming, it’s time for Gonzaga to do the right thing and get back in the same direction.