UNLV (10-3) has come a long way over the last two years, with HC Barry Odom and OC Brennan Marion coaching the Running Rebels to their second straight Mountain West Championship game. Aside from the aforementioned loss to Boise, UNLV’s only other blemish was a thrilling 44-41 OT loss to 9-3 ACC program Syracuse. Wins over Big 12 programs @Houston and @Kansas show how far the Rebs have come. UNLV’s offense gets lethal between the 20s, ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness and 3rd in IsoPPP. When the field is shortened, they struggle, ranking 118th with a red zone touchdown rate of 50.7%. Their run defense ranks a solid 9th in the EPA/Rush rankings. However, UNLV’s secondary is vulnerable to being overmatched, ranking 129th in air yards per target (8.7) and 76th in pass explosiveness.

California (6-6) got off to a hot start, winning its first three games with a 21-14 victory over @Auburn in Week 2. Cal lost four straight games by a total point margin of just nine points before losing three of the next four won to achieve bowl eligibility. The Bears’ rushing offense lacks consistency, ranking 118th in EPA/Rush and 125th in YAC, which is a problem since starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer portal and backup QB Chandler Rogers is questionable, whether it can be used. Cal’s defense ranks 33rd in EPA/play and 27th in explosive play rate allowed, with their Run D ranking an outstanding 10th in yards per successful rush allowed.

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Game details and how to watch The Art of Sport LA Bowl: California vs. UNLV

· Date: Wednesday, December 17, 2024
· Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
· Location: SoFi Stadium
· City: Los Angeles, CA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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California vs UNLV odds

• Money line: Cal (+120), UNLV (-145)
• Spread: UNLV (-3)
• Over/Under: 47.5 points

This game actually started with Cal leading at -1.5/-120, but has since shifted to UNLV -3/-145. With Cal QB Mendoza out, the overall rating has dropped from 51.5 to a low of 47.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) says:
“Cal is one of the more pass-oriented Power Four programs, ranking 115th in standard downs run rate and 101st in rush rate on pass downs. With Chandler Rogers’ availability highly questionable, we’ve already seen a significant shift in UNLV’s favor as potential bettors line up to move on from CJ Harris. I put the -3 and support the Running Rebels over Cal.”

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California vs. UNLV quarterback matchup

• Cal: Opening game starter Fernando Mendoza is set to transfer, so we’re expected to see former Ohio QB CJ Harris, who completed 84 of 158 passes for 904 yards and a 53.2% completion rate, which is a ratio of 5 to 5 over his career. He has some running ability when given the opportunity, as he has accumulated 265 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his five-year career. He’s a significant downgrade from Mendoza, so hopefully North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers is healthy enough to keep up.

• UNLV: Las Vegas brought in FCS signal-caller Matthew Sluka and Campbell’s Hajj-Malik Williams. Sluka started the first three games before a no-go inconsistency caused him to leave the team, with OC Marion handing the starting role to Williams, who completed 61.4% of his passes for 7.8 YPA and a 17-to-5 ratio completes. Hajj-Malik’s 11.0 ADOT is the 11th highest grade among 108 FBS and he has accumulated over 50 rushing yards in 9 of 11 contests. The fifth-year player posted an overall PFF grade of 78th percentile in his first FBS season.

Betting trends and current statistics

• California has 282 receptions in 12 games this season (23.5 per game), fourth-best among ACC skill players. UNLV’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season, ranking 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
• Hajj-Malik Williams has been sacked on 11% of pass attempts this season, which ranks 9th among FBS quarterbacks.
• UNLV has 17 interceptions this season, the second-most among non-power conference teams
• UNLV has completed passes of over 20 yards on 80 of its 694 total pass attempts since the 2023 season, which ranks 34th among FBS offenses.
• California is 6-13 (.316) allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, ranking 37th in the FBS. (Average: .422)
• Jaydn Ott has averaged just 2.9 yards per carry this season, second-worst among FBS running backs.
• Jack Endries has been targeted 108 times since the 2023 season, which ranks 10th among power conference tight ends.
• California has allowed opponents to catch 71 of 111 passes in the red zone since the 2023 season, tied for fourth-worst among power conference teams.

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line Movement (Open to Now)

• Oregon +900 to +350
• Texas +1000 to +350
• Georgia +500 to +500
• Ohio State +700 to +500

Highest ticket percentage

• Ohio State 11.9%
• Texas 10.1%
• Georgia 9.6%

Highest grip %

• Ohio State 14.8%
• Georgia 12.4%
• Alabama 11.4%

Largest Liabilities

• Alabama
• Arizona State
• Notre Dame

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