The Mets agree Griffin Canning Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that he has agreed to a one-year, $4.25 million free agent deal. The contract, which is pending finalization, includes an additional $1 million in performance bonuses. The Mets have four open roster spots, so no corresponding move is necessary. Canning is a Wasserman customer.

Technically, this will be Canning’s third team of the offseason. The Angels traded him to the Braves in a one-for-one trade Jorge Soler within hours of the trading market reopening. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a player who could stay in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicted he would receive a salary of $5.1 million in his final season as an umpire. The Braves balked at that price and didn’t offer it, saying the trade would involve giving up the final two years of Soler’s contract.

Canning thus became a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old is headed to Queens and should apply for a rotation job. Canning has more than five years of service and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He will be on the MLB roster in some capacity, but it is possible he will be pushed into long relief early in the year.

A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning immediately became one of the Angels’ better pitching prospects. He profiled as a fast-moving college arm who had a chance to land in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the major leagues within two years, but his career was checkered. As a rookie, he posted a 4.58 earned run average over 90 1/3 innings. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule, when he posted a 3.99 ERA in 11 starts.

This remains Canning’s only score below 4.00. Opponents marked him for a 5.60 ERA in 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading to the Halos optioning him to Triple-A. He landed on the injured list almost immediately with a stress reaction in his lower back. This continued the following year and cost him the entire 2022 season.

At the time, it looked like injuries might derail his career. His back was the most affected, but he also struggled with recurring elbow pain early in his career. Luckily, Canning has managed to stay mostly healthy over the last two seasons. He landed on the injured list twice in 2023, although both appearances were minimal appearances related to minor leg issues. Canning has avoided the IL entirely this year. However, its effectiveness has waned.

Canning posted a 4.32 ERA in 127 innings two seasons ago. It was a struggle this year, as he allowed 5.19 earned runs per nine in a career-high 171 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate fell to a personal low of 17.6%, more than eight points below last year’s 25.9%. Walks went up a few notches while his swinging strike percentage dropped from 12.8% to a league average of 11%.

The stuff also took a slight step backwards. Canning averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a touch below the previous season’s 94.7 MPH mark. Opponents teed off on this pitch, hitting 16 home runs for a .529 batting average. Canning has a fairly typical four-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and seems like a fourth starter at times. The Mets will look to help him find that form more consistently.

Canning is the third potential starter the Mets have added via free agency. They went to the middle of the market to continue playing to the upside Frankie Montas And Clay HolmesThe latter will switch to rotation work after six seasons as a full-time substitute player. The same cap doesn’t apply to canning—hence the much lower price—but it falls in line with New York’s apparent penchant for depth of stockpiling.

Montas, Kodai Senga, David Petersonand Holmes should all be in the opening day rotation. Can, Tylor Megill And Paul Blackburn would compete for the fifth starting job as things currently stand. The Mets might prefer to run a six-man rotation. Due to injury, Senga was limited to one regular season start this year. You must closely monitor Holmes’ workload so that he doesn’t tire. Blackburn finished 2024 on the IL and underwent spinal surgery after the season that could delay him in spring training.

The Mets could use at least one more middle rotation arm to solidify this group. They stayed in touch with Sean Manaea because he rejected her qualified offer. Various reports suggested that the landing was far from them Corbin Burnesbut The Athletic tied them to it Jack Flaherty And Nick Pivetta (each of them remains unsigned) during the winter meetings. Adding another starter would allow the Mets to push at least one of Canning, Megill or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

RosterResource estimates salary obligations and competitive balance sheet tax in New York at approximately $255 million. Owner Steve Cohen has easily increased his CBT value to well over $300 million in recent years. Once he lands, there is little reason for him to retreat Juan Soto. For now, they remain in the lowest level of tax deprivation for luxury goods. They are taxed at a 50% rate on expenses between $241 million and $261 million, so Canning’s tax bill is $2.125 million. This brings the investment before incentives to $6.375 million.

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