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Happy College Football Playoff Eve! The holiday mood is just beginning.

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CFP Preview

First Round Key Predictions

The first 12 college football playoffs begin tomorrow in South Bend. The “See You Saturday” podcast gave a preview of everything in today’s episode.

Here are keys, picks and predictions for the four first-round games (including our personnel predictions for the playoffs). All times are ET.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (8 p.m., Friday, ABC)

• Key for IU: Protect Kurtis Rourke. The most glaring problem in Indiana’s loss to Ohio State was how the Hoosiers protected their quarterback. Rourke was sacked five times and completed just eight of his 18 pass attempts. If Indiana wants a chance, she starts by protecting Rourke.
• Keys to Notre Dame: Go ahead and stay there. Notre Dame has been poor on third-and-long (converting third-and-seven or more 10 of 63 times this season). The Irish need to stay one step ahead of the chains.
• Forecast: A snow game? Perhaps? ⛄Light snowfall throughout the day with a high of 34 degrees and a low of 22 degrees.
• The Sporty Personnel selection: Notre Dame 90 percent, Indiana 10 percent
• Until Saturday reader selection:

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (Noon, Saturday, TNT)

• The key for SMU: Get QB Kevin Jennings going. SMU’s offense works best when it works quickly. Jennings has thrown for multiple touchdowns in the Mustangs’ last five games and is a threat if he can extend plays with his legs.
• Key for Penn State: Avoid turnovers (and force a few). The Mustangs have 21 takeaways this season, good for 26th in the country. Two Drew Allar interceptions tipped the balance in the Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon…that can’t happen again.
• Forecast: The chance of snow on Friday could carry over into Saturday, with a high of 27 degrees and a low of 10 degrees.
• The athlete Personnel selection: Penn State 73.3 percent, SMU 26.7 percent
• Until Saturday reader selection:

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (4 p.m., Saturday, TNT)

• Clemson keys: I thought about it for a while and couldn’t think of anything that could realistically go well enough for Clemson to win this game. Maybe it’s a matter of betting on Texas having a bad day and relying on the late-December magic that previously worked for the Tigers (after all, that’s why). Sporty Staff picked Clemson to go all the way).
• Texas Key: Quinn Ewers. As Texpert Sam Khan Jr. wrote today, the Longhorns will go as far as Ewers takes them. The Texas QB wasn’t bad, but it’s fair to say his performance fell short of expectations. In Texas’ two losses (both to Georgia), Ewers posted his lowest completion percentages of the season and was sacked five or more times.
• Forecast: Sunny skies with a high of 64 degrees and a low of 41 degrees. The wind is weak and changeable.
• The athlete Personnel selection: Texas 90 percent, Clemson 10 percent
• Until Saturday reader selection:

No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State (8 p.m., Saturday, ABC)

• Tennessee Key: Find a way to get around Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes pose the toughest defensive challenge Tennessee has ever faced. The Vols need to avoid turnovers and create opportunities in the passing game.
• Ohio State keys: Be aggressive early. Tennessee struggled with slow starts. The Buckeyes should look to knock QB Nico Iamaleava off the field early and extend their lead, putting pressure on Tennessee.
• Forecast: A mostly sunny day leads to a cool evening with temperatures of up to 13 degrees.
• The athlete Personnel selection: Ohio State 63.3 percent, Tennessee 36.7 percent
• Until Saturday reader selection:

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Mandel’s mailbag

Surprise watch in the first round

Which first round games are most likely to cause upsets? Do you think we’ll get any? — Greg S., Conn.

It would not be appropriate for the 2024 season if all four games were to come to nothing. I fully expect there to be surprises in the early rounds. However, it is difficult to determine exactly which one they are.

My surprise pick is SMU’s win at Penn State. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is a ballplayer who can handle this road environment, and although the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack exploded against Oregon, SMU boasts the third-best run defense in the country. Of course I could be completely wrong. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik threw four touchdowns against the Mustangs in the ACC Championship Game, so the window for Drew Allar is there. But between these two QBs, I’d rather go with Jennings.

Read the full mailbag here.

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More postseason football

FCS semifinals

If you’re looking for playoff games on Saturday afternoon, you’ll notice that the two CFP games (SMU-Penn State, Clemson-Texas) are on TNT. That’s because ABC is taking over the FCS playoff semifinals No. 3 South Dakota State vs. No. 2 North Dakota State at noon And No. 4 South Dakota vs. No. 1 Montana State at 3:30 p.m

SDSU vs. NDSU should be a heated rematch. When the arch-rivals and dueling dynasties met in October, North Dakota State scored the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes to play. At Montana State-South Dakota, the top-seeded Bobcats boast the FCS’s highest-scoring offense, while South Dakota has had to rely on some late-game turnovers to emerge victorious this season.

The winners will meet in the FCS Championship on January 6, 2025.

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Quick snapshots

You’ve made your picks to win, but which teams should you face? Look no further than Joe Rexrode’s Hater’s Guide.

Top transfer QB John Mateer – formerly of Washington state – was deployed to Oklahoma yesterday.

How much will it cost Trip to Penn State for a first round game? SMU fans, I’m sorry you had to open your wallets.

How did each CFP team get their own? Nickname? Today Matt Baker dives into the fun origin stories where I finally learned what exactly a Nittany Lion is.

You can purchase tickets to every college football game here.

For streaming information on Fubo, click here.

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(Photo by Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)