Game overview

Week 16 begins with a battle between AFC West rivals, the currently sixth-seeded Denver Broncos and the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers.

Even though Los Angeles maintains a strong 9-4-1 record against the spread, last week’s stunning defeat was the team’s third straight loss in the last four weeks after two coverage failures. However, the Chargers have excelled in scoring this year and are the favorite with a coverage rate of 77.8% – second only to the Broncos.

The Chargers have struggled in recent weeks due to a drastic decline in offensive productivity. As of Week 12, Los Angeles ranks just 25th in EPA per game, a stark contrast to their top-11 ranking the four weeks prior. This decline can be attributed to the offense’s lack of consistent playmaking ability, as the unit only managed a 15.4% touchdown drive rate (27th) and only 31.8% of snaps (28th) during that period.

That could spell trouble with the Broncos’ stout defense coming to town. Denver’s unit has posted the best EPA per games allowed in the league this season, largely due to its opportunistic nature. The Broncos have scored the most defensive points in the NFL (32), highlighted by three defensive touchdowns in the last two games.

A strong defense coupled with a promising young quarterback in Bo Nix has led this team to the NFL’s best record against the spread (11-3), with the last failed coverage coming back in Week 9. Playing in Denver in thin air isn’t the only place this team can cover, as they boast a 6-1 record against the spread on the road this season.

However, the Broncos still have something to prove after the same Chargers team beat them in Week 6 – a game in which Los Angeles was a 3-point favorite in Denver. With postseason positioning at stake, expect both teams to drain their energy in this divisional clash.

RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-116) – 5.4% PFF Edge

After JK Dobbins landed on injured reserve after Week 12, it was expected that a young, talented defender waiting in the wings would take over the Chargers’ backfield. However, despite his expanded role, Vidal’s contributions were limited. Over the past three games, the first-year defender has amassed just 15 carries while averaging 4.2 yards per tote and has posted just a 56.7 PFF rushing grade over the entire span. The volume is simply not enough to facilitate his rushing yard lines, resulting in him only exceeding his rushing line once this season.

Denver’s defense is adept at holding back, having suffered the second-lowest EPA per rush this season. The Broncos have allowed the third-fewest yards per carry allowed (3.9) and also the sixth-lowest percentage of explosive running plays (11.0%).