The Phillies are reportedly hiring an outfielder Max Kepler on a one-year, $10 million contract. The agreement is pending a physical hearing and has not yet been announced by the team. Philadelphia has a hole on its 40-man roster and doesn’t need to make a corresponding move. Kepler is represented by VC Sports Group.

Kepler changes uniform for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the major leagues near the end of the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 major league campaigns with Minnesota, exceeding the six-year control window after signing a $35 million contract extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. After a 36-home run performance in 2019, it looked like he was on the verge of stardom, but that proved to be an outlier in a season of playing with the juiced ball. Outside of this year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 home run threat with good base skills.

Kepler, 32 years old in February, has had his most unproductive season. He struggled with injuries to both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to eight home runs, a career low, while posting a mediocre .253/.302/.380 line in 399 plate appearances. Free passes plummeted alongside power. Kepler hit a career-low 5.5% while posting his lowest on-base percentage.

The Phillies are hoping a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his previous form. Kepler only had one of its best years in 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) in 491 plate appearances this season. Kepler achieved personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 mph) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting he wasn’t playing at full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished performance came late in the season. He brought a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star break. This dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to secure a Wild Card spot, but his numbers dropped so far in August that he had to end up on the shelf. Minnesota’s collapse in September meant he couldn’t return for a potential postseason push.

Although it ended with a loss, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1,000 games and hit .237/.318/.429 with 161 home runs and just over 500 runs batted in. However, there wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in a different direction this offseason. Ownership doesn’t give the front office much financial flexibility, so an eight-figure deal to keep Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in question.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the best defensive right fielders in the game. If the target field outer field were not shared Byron Buxtonhe probably would have had a more consistent run in midfield earlier in his career. Kepler’s defensive performances are still solid, but not as strong as they were in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved ranked him as a league-average right fielder in just over 800 innings last season. Statcast rated him two runs above average.

Better health could also help him rebound on defense. Kepler fell below league average for the first time on Statcast’s sprint speed measurement. That’s no surprise considering he played with knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping this year was a blip due to health and not a sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler expects to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. It’s a position he’s never played in the majors, although most right fielders can kick to the opposite corner without much trouble. Kepler hasn’t started a game in midfield since 2021, so he’s likely just a stopgap there. Johan Rojas And Brandon Marsh are more responsible for the work in the midfield.

While there shouldn’t be any major issues with the position change, Kepler’s handedness makes him an odd choice. The Phils had been trying to find a rotation outfielder who could reduce playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-hander would have been the easiest solution and would have allowed the Phils to protect Marsh from lefties. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays I’d call that a deadline, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler does not fulfill this need. Like most lefties, he is much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 against right-handed hitters. He is a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1,000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils face Marsh, he would likely pair with the right-hitting Rojas in center field. That would put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play left field regularly.

Marsh could always move left if Kepler ends up on the IL, but then the Phillies would have the same mediocre outfield to try to upgrade. They would certainly like to spend the remaining two years and $40 million on it Nick Castellanos Deal that would allow them to slot Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Losing a significant portion of the Castellanos’ money is much easier said than done after hitting .254/.311/.431 this year.

It appears the Phils preferred the price for Kepler over the asking price for the best available right-handed outfielders. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia has shown interest Teoscar Hernandez but he seemed to shy away from the question. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year, $60 million deal.

Signing Kepler increases the Phils’ salary obligations to around $280 million, according to RosterResource’s calculations. They amount to competition-related accounting tax liabilities of up to $299 million. The Phils were already in the third penalty tier with their CBT number heading into the offseason. They have paid the tax in three consecutive seasons and are therefore subject to the highest escalator surcharges. Their spending of between $281 million and $301 million will be taxed at a 95% tax rate, meaning they will have to pay $9.5 million in taxes on Kepler. This represents a total owner commitment of nearly $20 million.

Once they exceed $301 million, they will be taxed on further expenses at the maximum rate of 110%. The Phillies were almost certain to advance past the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. This drops their top draft pick in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and go top six in the lottery). Signing of Kepler and Jordan Romano on one-year contracts answers two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com initially reported that Kepler and the Phillies would reach a one-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and revealed the $10 million salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.