Two more players from my top 50 free agent rankings have found new homes: Christian Walker (No. 19) has reportedly agreed to a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros, and Max Kepler (No. 25 ) is joining the Phillies on a one-year contract worth $10 million. Below is a look at both new signings:

Christian Walker is on the older side but should still have good years ahead of him

The Astros continue to rebuild their roster, using some of the money they saved by trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs to fill their void at first base by signing the top free agent at the position in Walker . He is an outstanding defender with an above-average offensive profile. It’s a completely different story than last time, when they tried to sign a first baseman in his mid-30s to a three-year deal; When they did it with José Abreu, they ignored all signs that he was aging, while Walker looks like he has at least two years left before Father Time gets his say.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2019, Walker has been extremely consistent. In the last three years, the WRC+ values ​​​​have been between 119 and 122 and in five of the last six years between 110 and 122. Only in 2021, when he struck, was he beaten twice on the injured list with oblique injuries. He’s been worth 3.0 fWAR, 3.9 fWAR and 3.9 fWAR over the last three years, starting in 2024 backwards, and if he gives the Astros another 3-WAR season this year and maybe 4-5 more in the last two years of the contract, you’ll probably think it’s a good deal.

He’s an obvious upgrade for them at first base, where they received a .226/.291/.360 line last year, mostly from Abreu and Jon Singleton, and ended up getting less than replacement value from the position. If Walker has another 2022-style season, they would be more than four wins better off than last year.

The downside with Walker is his age – he’ll be 34 in 2025, and that’s in the range where many hitters find their bat speed declines. The Astros have seen it with Abreu, and they may fear it with Alex Bregman, who is only 31 but showed off his performance against the four-seamers Crater in 2024. Walker’s peak year in 2022 saw him whiff just 7.4 percent of the time he faced a pitch 95 mph or higher, but with the exception of this season he was in the 12-15 percent range and finished there in 2024 again at 13.7 percent.

Walker doesn’t look like he’s lost bat speed, and nothing in the data says that’s the case. Therefore, I am much more optimistic about this signing than I was about the Abreu deal, even though both players were in their mid-30s at the time when they signed their contracts. The end can come quickly for hitters, of course, so there’s a non-zero chance that Walker shows up in February in the next three years and his bat speed is simply gone, perhaps making him a 1-WAR player thanks to his defense and patience, which obviously wouldn’t be that great of a value for a $20 million AAV. I bet that doesn’t happen until the final year of his contract, if at all, and agree with the Astros that they can probably get 7-8 wins out of him over the life of his contract.

The Yankees and Mariners are both still looking for a first baseman, and both were at least reportedly interested in Walker. The Yankees probably should have paid that price, although they may have been unwilling to pay it and forgo the draft picks needed to sign Walker. (Houston will give up their second and fifth picks wherever they land, hurting an already decrepit farm system, but they are absolutely in winning mode and I agree with their decision to give up those picks.)

For any team looking for a definitive starter to begin with, it’s something like Pete Alonso or bust at this point, and he would fit well with the Yankees as he’s a right-handed hitter who would help balance their lineup, but He also declined a qualifying offer and required the Yankees to give up draft picks to sign him. Of course, they only traded for Cody Bellinger and were able to play him at first base instead of signing or trading for someone else.

The Mariners, meanwhile, don’t initially have a true incumbent after giving up about half of their offense to Ty France (-0.2 bWAR) last year and splitting the rest between now-free agent Justin Turner and platoon bat Luke Raley , who doesn’t hit lefties at all but shoots nearly .500 RHP. They could sign Alonso as Raley’s platoon mate…no, I’m just kidding.

Both teams could also focus on the trade market, where Cleveland appears to be eyeing the possibility of moving Josh Naylor, who opted out in 2023 and carried most of that into 2024, aside from a coincidentally low BABIP. He’s hit .272/.335/.471 over the last two seasons and his production totaled 4.0 bWAR/5.0 fWAR over that span, although the former number is likely an understatement given his terrible defensive value starting in 2024 . (He was 0 OAA, so completely average; I would expect him to perform a little below average, but I don’t think he’s as unplayable as Baseball-Reference dWAR indicates.)

Naylor is left-handed but has shown modest platoon splits over the past two years, making him suitable for either team, even the left-leaning Yankees. He’s entering his final year as an arbitrator before free agency, making him a rental to whoever acquires him, which should keep the potential price somewhat low – he’s not as valuable as Kyle Tucker, for example, and Tucker was just traded traded an elite player prospect and two major league players who are no better than average for their relative positions. He would be a modest upgrade for the Mariners and a slightly larger one for the Yankees. I could imagine Naylor and Alonso generating similar value in 2025, so it would be a question of whether a team wants to trade prospects to get a loan player or simply spend money on a longer-term deal.

Max Kepler is moving to the Phillies after a poor season with the Twins. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

The Phillies are taking a solid risk on re-promotion candidate Max Kepler

The Phillies have signed Kepler, one of the better prospects on this winter’s free agent market. I like the player and the bet that his production will be worth significantly more than the $10 million salary. I’m a little nervous about how well he’ll fit into the Phillies’ lineup, where much of the offense already comes from the left side.

Kepler’s 2023 season was worth nearly three wins, but he injured his knee and was on the injured list twice in 2024 without being anywhere near his usual level last season. He had much weaker contact and couldn’t get good speed at all.

Kepler, the best German-born player in MLB history, is only 31 years old and should still have a few productive years ahead of him, even if he enters the decline phase a little earlier. Given that he’s still a plus defender, I don’t think his body has slowed down at all – I interpret the decline in his offensive prowess as largely, if not entirely, a result of the knee issues. If he’s a two-win player, the Phillies got a good deal.

The Phillies’ lineup already gets a lot more production from the left side than the right side. Their left-handed hitters hit .270/.342/.441 last year, better than their right-handed hitters (.251/.318/.417). Their top two hitters are both left-handed, and with Kepler and Brandon Marsh at left and center, respectively, that’s probably five left-handed starters in the lineup.

Marsh has played some center games for Philly, posting a plus-3 OAA in over 1,100 innings over the last two years there, and if Kepler effectively replaces Johan Rojas, an elite defender who doesn’t do any damage at the plate, that’s it probably a net win for the team. Maybe they’re not really “too left-handed” given the actual players involved, as Kepler, Bryce Harper, and Bryson Stott all have very light platoon splits, but it’s at least unusual for the lineup to lean so far to the left.

Whatever the case, I think Kepler will exceed his salary many times over, so I like the Phillies’ move, even if there is a dispute over their roster.

(Top photo by Walker: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)