Week 16 of the NFL season brings us two Saturday games to kick off the weekend.

CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of the day. Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury but has been cleared to play. Both teams have already secured tickets to the postseason, but the Chiefs can secure home-field advantage and a first-round bye with two more wins or a win and a Buffalo Bills loss.

The second game of the day features a rivalry showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have already secured a spot in the playoffs, but can clinch the AFC North with a win on Saturday. The Ravens can at least secure a wild card spot with a win.

There are many options for potential bets on the games, so check out the lines, props, analysis, trends and our tips below.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

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That spread shifted earlier in the week due to uncertainty over Mahomes’ status. The Texans entered the game as slight favorites, but the line shifted toward the Chiefs as positive reports came in about the Kansas City quarterback being cleared to start.

The Chiefs (13-1, 5-9 ATS) have already won the AFC West, but were overtaken as conference favorites this week by the Buffalo Bills before returning to the top spot following Thursday night’s win by the Los Angeles Chargers over the Denver Broncos. It was the first time since the odds were released in February that the Chiefs (now +185) were not considered favorites to win the AFC.

The Texans (9-5, 6-8 ATS) also secured their division title. The AFC South champs are +1400 to win the AFC.

Houston won at home against the Miami Dolphins last week, while Kansas City won on the road against the Cleveland Browns, in a game that Mahomes had to abandon early because of an ankle injury.

Saturday’s first game begins at 1 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Game lines

Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (opened Texans -1)
Money line: Chiefs -190, Texans +160
Over/Under: 42.5 (open 41.5)

Distribution in the first half: Chiefs -2.5 (-110), Texans +2.5 (-110)
Texans total points: 19.5 (above -110/below -120)
Chiefs total points: 22.5 (above -125/below -105)

Matchup Predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chiefs have a 61% chance of winning

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The props

Passing by

CJ Stroud total passing yards: 224.5 (above -140/below +110)
Stroud’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -200)
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Mahomes’ total pass TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -132)

Rush

Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Isiah Pacheco Total Rushing Yards: 49.5 (above -145/below +115)
Kareem Hunt Total Rushing Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Reception

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 89.5 (above -105/below -125)
Tank Dell total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -130/below +100)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -125/below -105)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -120/below -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -115/below -115)
Xavier Worthy receiving total yards: 39.5 (above -125/below -105)
Noah Gray receiving total yards: 19.5 (above -140/below +110)

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Eric Moody’s selection

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 249.5 Passing Yards (-140)

Mahomes is expected to play on Saturday, but he won’t be at 100%. The Chiefs would be wise to rely on the ground game, but if Mahomes actually makes a throw, he’ll face a tough Texans secondary. Houston allows the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and holds opponents to a 57.7% completion rate. It’s worth noting that Mahomes has fallen below that limit in three of his last five games.

Nico Collins OVER 89.5 yards (-105)

The Chiefs’ defense has been tough this season, but their secondary can be inconsistent. They’ve already given up big plays to other top receivers, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London and Jakobi Meyers.

Collins has missed some time, but when he is on the field he has been phenomenal, averaging 8.6 scores and 94.3 yards per game. CJ Stroud clearly trusts Collins, and this duo will need to produce big performances to keep up with Kansas City.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games (reported last week).

• The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Texans are 12-2 ATS in the first half of play this season, the best record in the NFL.

• The Chiefs are 30-15-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under coach Andy Reid (25-11-1 ATS since 2015).

• Kansas City is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, their longest ATS losing streak at home since 2022 (4).

• Houston is 10-4 this season, the highest in the league.

• With a win this week, the Texans can surpass their win total from their inaugural season (9.5).

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Russell Wilson and the AFC North-leading Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) travel to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (9-5, 7-7 ATS).

Despite the current standings, the Ravens are +400 to win the AFC (+850 to win the Super Bowl) and the Steelers are +1300 (+2500 to win the Super Bowl). However, the Steelers remain the favorite to win the division (-170) against Baltimore (+130).

Pittsburgh enters Week 16 with a loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia. Baltimore lost to the Eagles two weeks ago, but is coming off a win against the New York Giants.

The Steelers won the first meeting between these division rivals 18:16 a little over a month ago.

Saturday’s second game is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

Spread: Ravens -6.5 (open Ravens -6.5)
Money line: Ravens -280, Steelers +230
Over/Under: 44.5 (open 46.5)

Distribution in the first half: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Steelers total points: 18.5 (above -115/below -115)
Ravens total points: 25.5 (above -120/below -110)

Matchup Predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Ravens 66.5% chance of winning

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The props

Passing by

Russell Wilson total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Wilson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -190)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (above -120/below -110)
Jackson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -110/below +120)

Rush

Derrick Henry Total Rushing Yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jackson’s total rushing yards: 49.5 (above -110/below -120)
Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jaylen Warren Total Rushing Yards: 29.5 (above -110/below -120)

Reception

Zay Flowers receiving total yards: 59.5 (above -130/below +100)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -120/below -110)
Pat Freiermuth total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -130/below +100)
Calvin Austin III total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Isaiah Likely Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

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Moody’s tips

Lamar Jackson OVER 224.5 yards (-120)

Jackson is having the best season of his career. In Week 11, he only managed 207 yards on the road against the Steelers. But this time he will perform well at home. Jackson has exceeded that mark in eight of his last 10 games, averaging nearly 30 pass attempts.

The Steelers’ defense is tough, no question, but this unit has shown cracks. Both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts have exceeded that limit in the last three weeks against the Steelers. Expect Jackson to rise to the occasion and deliver a strong performance.

Derrick Henry UNDER 79.5 rushing yards (+105)

Henry was a strong figure at the start of this season, managing to get over that line in six of his first seven games. But he has waned lately, going down in four of his last seven games.

In Week 11, he only managed 65 yards against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is no joke. It has given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season and just 3.8 yards per carry on the road. It won’t be an easy duel for Henry.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Eight straight meetings between the Steelers and Ravens went under the total.

• The Steelers have won four straight meetings (4-0 ATS) and are 8-1 (7-2 ATS) in their last nine meetings.

• The Steelers have won four straight meetings in Baltimore (4-0 ATS).

• The Steelers’ streak of seven straight wins as underdogs came to an end last week (also the second-longest streak since the merger in 1970). Pittsburgh is 5-1 overall and ATS as an underdog this season.

• The Steelers are 60-33-3 ATS underdogs under Mike Tomlin (52-44). Tomlin has the second-best ATS record as an underdog and the second-best overall record in the Super Bowl era behind Matt LaFleur (min. 20 games as an underdog). The Steelers have been underdogs since 2018, going 35-16-2 ATS.

• Ravens games are 11-3 this season, the highest over rate in the NFL. However, the Ravens’ unders in the first quarter are 10-3-1, the highest under rate in the NFL. The Overs is 5-1 in the Steelers’ last six road games.

• The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.

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