It’s week 16? Yes, it’s week 16! The fantasy football postseason is entering its second week for most virtual fans and the real NFL playoffs are just around the corner.

This week, Daniel Dopp and I want to improve our numbers while lining your pockets with some extra vacation money.

Let’s dive in! — Liz Loza

All odds at the time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

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Quarterback props

Drake Maye OVER 199.5 Passing Yards (-115), OVER 0.5 INTs (-165)

Loza: Maye was a garbage time hero who padded his stats while chasing points. It’s a trend that looks set to continue as the New England Patriots are 14-point underdogs in Orchard Park, New York. Maye is averaging 189.7 yards this season but has passed for over 200 yards in four straight contests. In his eagerness, he has also thrown seven picks in his last six games. The Buffalo Bills’ secondary is riddled with injuries, which should help Maye get in touch with his receiving corps. Buffalo also ranks seventh in total INTs with an impressive 13 this season. With the chance of rain for Sunday’s game currently only at 5%, the weather shouldn’t stop Maye from throwing the ball in the air enough times to win both bets.

Caleb Williams longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-120)

Double: The Lions’ defensive woes came to a head when they played against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week and lost despite scoring 42 points! One way Allen and the Bills were able to overcome this defense was by relying on Allen’s legs to pick up yards on the ground when plays fell through. It’s something every Lions fan has witnessed all season (at least since Aiden Hutchinson was out for the season).

Given Aaron Glenn’s strong coverage scheme, the QBs were able to rack up large amounts of yards all season long, although things were even worse in the second half due to all the defensive injuries Detroit suffered. The Lions have allowed QBs to run of 13 yards or more on 11 different occasions this year. Sam Darnold was at the top of this line in Week 7, as was Mason Rudolph in Week 8. In Weeks 9 through 11, the Lions fell short of Mac Jones, CJ Stroud and Jordan Love – with Love being the only one with mobility – in this range . In Week 12, Anthony Richardson was at the top of this list. In Week 13, Williams exceeded that limit. In Week 14, Love got his revenge and defeated this line. In Week 15, Allen broke that barrier.

Do you see a trend? The Lions have given up at least 13 yards on a single rush attempt to QBs in each of the last four weeks. This defense is still badly beaten, especially at the LB position, and I expect Williams to clear that number again.

Running back props

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 125.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-118)

Double: Gibbs faces some extra work in the Lions’ backfield with David Montgomery done for the regular season. The injury is heartbreaking for Lions fans, but it makes it clear that the backfield is clear for those looking to place a prop bet on Gibbs.

Earlier this week, Michael Lester Clay Jr. tweeted about Gibbs’ accomplishments when Montgomery missed time this year. For the sake of brevity, Gibbs had 20 touchdowns for 126 yards (and a touchdown) in Week 7 and 31 touchdowns for a career-high 189 yards (and a touchdown) in Week 8. Not only did he hit the ground running in those two weeks, but he also showed off his ability to split up the Bears’ defense in Week 13 when he had 11 touches for 104 yards.

This Bears’ defense has slowed down significantly in recent weeks, allowing Josh Jacobs to rush for 134 yards in Week 11, Aaron Jones for 129 yards in Week 12, Montgomery for 124 in Week 13, and Isaac Guerendo for 128 yards in Week 14. I know that Gibbs in the rushing and passing game and in the recent struggles the Bears have had against their opponents RBs, I’ll take Gibbs to hit the over.

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Wide receiver props

Darnell Mooney 50+ yards (-125), longest reception for 22.5 yards (-110)

Loza: The Michael Penix Jr. era begins Sunday against the New York Giants. Penix shined at the University of Washington by showing incredible arm talent and leading the FBS in passing last season. Penix has completed and attempted the most throws from 20 yards downfield of any FBS player in 2023. While some bettors may have concerns about the rookie’s efficiency in his first start, I’m confident he will ignite the Atlanta Falcons and further unlock the team’s downfield weapons. That bodes well for Mooney, who ranks 16th among wide receivers in aDOT (12.74) and 18th in reception percentage over 20 yards (33%). Penix and Mooney are expected to play against a Giants secondary that has allowed the highest deep pass completion rate (65%) this season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 59.5 receiving yards, 4+ receptions (SGP +163)

Double: JSN has been on the move lately and has seemingly taken on the role of WR1 in this Seattle Seahawks passing attack. He leads the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. It’s been a breakout season for the second-year WR and there’s a chance it can get even better this week against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have allowed the most targets, receptions and receiving yards to wide receivers this year, as well as the fourth-most completions and third-most yards in the slot where JSN has resided.

The Seahawks should continue to rely on their breakout star as they MUST win this game to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. JSN has at least four receptions and 59.5 receiving yards in seven straight games! The fact that you’re able to get plus money on a line that he’s beaten seven weeks in a row against a team that gives up yards and receptions like it’s going out of style seems crazy to me, but that’s not my day the lines over at ESPN BET. This is my favorite bet of the weekend and I encourage everyone to jump on it before the odds change. Give me JSN to complete this match competition.

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Tight end prop

Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 receptions (even)

Loza: The Pittsburgh Steelers have surprisingly thwarted Lamar Jackson for much of his career, as the Baltimore Ravens signalman only managed a 2-5 record against their AFC North rivals. Still, the Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites for the Week 16 game. With Russell Wilson likely to go for points and George Pickens sidelined for the third straight game, Freiermuth expects to see some heavy volume. The veteran tight end has three catches in consecutive games, but that number should increase given the matchup. Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most catches to opposing TEs (5.2 per game). Look for Muth to grab at least four grabs on Saturday.

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