The Buffalo Bills could set an NFL record with a big scoring day against the Patriots

ORCHARD PARK – This is fun, right, Buffalo Bills fans?

After two decades in which New England not only dominated the Bills, with Tom Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick tailoring his hoodies on the sidelines, but also the NFL on its way to 17 AFC East division titles, nine AFC Championships and six Super Bowl triumphs These days, the Patriots just stink.

These are indeed glory days for Bills Mafia, but also for the staff at One Bills Drive, considering how thoroughly the Patriots embarrassed them in every way for 19 years, with only the lost decade of the 1970s keeping up with the Dolphins beating the Bills 20 times in a row is still an NFL record.

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Man, karma is a big deal, and it’s turned around for the Patriots, as they’ve had to swallow a choking dose of punishment over the last two years – Belichick’s ugly 4-13 exit in 2023 and Jerod Mayo’s terrible 3-11 debut in 2023 2024. Those 24 losses are just two fewer than the Patriots lost in Brady’s last seven seasons combined had.

Now they come to Highmark Stadium on Sunday as stunning 14-point underdogs to play a Bills team that replaced the Patriots as masters of the AFC East in 2020 and has not relinquished its control of the division by defeating them for five seasons won in a row.

Since Brady brought his 32-3 career record to Tampa Bay as New England’s starting QB against the Bills after 2019, Buffalo has won seven of nine games, including a 47-17 game in the 2021 AFC Wild Card Round.

The two Patriots’ wins were a fortuitous 14-10 decision in 2021 on a night when a virtual hurricane blew through Orchard Park, and then the strange 29-25 game last year where the only explanation was the same, which we hear all the time the NFL: On any given Sunday. That was a day where the Bills simply played poorly against a significantly inferior team and lost on the road.

Otherwise, it was all Buffalo, as the Bills have outscored the Patriots 263-165 in the nine games, and the point differential will increase significantly, if of course this isn’t one of the “Any Any Sunday” games deals and that will be something be what Sean McDermott will be talking about this week.

“There are always interesting divisional games that always have a little bit more of a competitive edge,” he said of that game, but also the fact that the Bills will play the Jets and then again the Patriots to close out the regular season. “It makes for good football across the board for the organizations, the teams and certainly the fans.”

Here are three questions I want to ask the Bills before the matchup:

1. Can the Bills reach the 30-point mark for the ninth straight game?

If they do that, they would be the first team in NFL history to do so, and it’s hard to imagine the Bills not getting past 30 against New England. The Patriots’ defense ranks 23rd in points allowed (24.1) and 21st in yards allowed (344.1), and while they have a pretty good secondary, led by CB Christian Gonzalez, a Pro Bowl caliber, she is weak up front and ranks 29th in QB pressure at 29.3% and 28th in sack percentage (5.6%).

And given Josh Allen’s insane ability to escape pressure and extend plays, the Patriots won’t be able to cover long enough to slow down the Bills’ entire roster of talented players after everyone returns from injury. Last week, Allen scored 48 points and completed passes to nine players, none of whom were named Amari Cooper. That’s crazy.

Even if the weather is an issue — it shouldn’t be snowing, but wind and temperatures in the teens can sometimes hinder a passing game — the Patriots are 21st against the run (127.4), so the Bills are getting their three-man RB rotation rolling James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson can.

“When it comes to our running backs, we know it could be a run or a pass, whether we have Jimbo, Ray or Ty in the game, they could all be on defense,” said coordinator Joe Brady. “The ball can go to them, they are not just there for a passing game and are more of a decoy or an outlet.”

Right now, Brady is at the top of his game as a schemer and playmaker, and yes, having Allen as a triggerman helps, but this Buffalo offense is firing on all cylinders for reasons that go beyond even Allen’s size. Not that he’s happy.

“I want to say we’re on the right track, but we have to continue to find ways to improve,” Brady said in classic coaching speak, because when you look at what the Bills have done, it’s hard to believe they it can do better. “We have to play our best football going into the playoffs, and if we have our best football in the last two weeks, we’re not going to get where we want to go.”

2. Can the Bills defend better when they lose possession?

The offense has scored 90 points in the last two games, so Brady asking for more seems a little aggressive. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Bobby Babich can demand a lot more from his team after giving up 86 points over the last two weeks. If the defense doesn’t start playing its best football in January, the Bills may not get where they want to go, which is New Orleans for Super Bowl 59.

Across the board, the Bills need to start asserting themselves, but one area where they certainly need to improve is on possession downs, third and fourth down, where the defense has a chance to finish drives and get the ball back in Allen’s possession to bring hands. Even winning 11 of 14 games, there have been too many instances this season where opposing offenses have sustained attacks, most notably on third-and-long situations.

That probably won’t be a concern in this game against a weak Patriots offense, but in the playoffs against the best teams, turnovers are crucial. The Bills enter Week 16 ranked 26th in the league in third-down conversion percentage allowed (43.4%) and while ranked sixth-best on fourth-downs (a 50% success rate ), opponents still converted 14 fourth downs against them, which ranks fifth-most in the NFL.

The defense has played 85 plays on third-and-7 or longer and allowed 26 first downs, which translates to an opponent conversion rate of 30.6%, and that’s not sustainable. In comparison, the Lions’ defense, as banged up as it is, still leads the NFL in third-down percentage allowed at 32.4%. It has played 83 games on third-and-7 or longer and allowed just 18 first downs, giving opponents a success rate of just 21.6%.

If you’re looking for an AFC team to compare to, the Steelers’ excellent defense ranks seventh in third-down conversion percentage allowed (35.1%), they have 88 third-ands -7 or longer snaps experienced and only 19 first-down snaps allowed, a rate of 21.5%.

Last week, Detroit’s high-powered offense converted 6 of 9 times on third-and-7 or longer, including a 66-yard touchdown by Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown on third-and-17 and his 12th -Yard TD to Tim Patrick on a third-and-9.

“We gave up the explosive on the third pass (to St. Brown), which certainly … I could put them in a better position,” Babich said. “And there are things we can do better in this game to limit that, even if they implement it. We can’t allow a team to pace up and down the field in a two-minute passing situation. We can’t. We can’t do that and it starts with me.”

3. Is this the start of something with Drake Maye in New England?

If there’s one positive to come out of the Patriots’ 3-11 season so far, it’s that they may have found their franchise quarterback in rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. And if that’s the case, it’s not good news for the Bills, who have easily had the best quarterback in the division since the start of 2020.

Mayo didn’t throw Maye in at the beginning of the season because he wanted to take it slow and let the boy watch and learn, although it’s difficult to imagine what he might have learned from watching journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Brissett went 1-4 as a starter and averaged just 12.5 points, wasting some solid defensive performances that could have led to victories with more competent QB play.

Mayo was traded to Maye in Week 6 and in his nine starts, the Patriots averaged 19.5 points. In his debut in Houston, New England set a season high in points in a 41-21 loss and Maye threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns despite having two picks. The next week he threw for 276 points and two more touchdowns in a really bad 32-16 loss to the terrible Jaguars, and since then he’s shown clear signs that once he gets some experience, he has a good chance of doing anything Being like Mac Jones, a 2021 first-round bust, wasn’t for the Patriots: A winner.

The Patriots have only topped 20 points five times this season, but four of those came with Maye and two of those came during the four-game losing streak they are experiencing during their visit to Orchard Park. In those losses to the Rams, Dolphins, Colts and Cardinals, he completed 72.8% of his passes for 944 yards with 5 TDs and 4 picks and ran for 126 yards.

After Maye rushed for a career-high 282 yards against his Rams, coach Sean McVay said of the rookie: “He looks like a stud. You can just see the influence he has on his teammates. He looks to be a special player for a long time.”

“I think he’s starting to get a little more comfortable with the guys,” former Bills QB and Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said a few weeks ago. “More talkative in meetings. He’s a real leader, he cares about the guys and I think they’ll respond when he says something.”

Sal Maiorana has been covering the Buffalo Bills for four decades, including 35 years as a full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books on the team’s history. He can be reached at [email protected] and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social. Sign up for his Bills Blast newsletter here: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

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