Top 3 NFL bets and player props for Patriots at Bills Week 16

Top 3 NFL bets and player props for Patriots at Bills Week 16

Even within a single NFL game, there are numerous betting markets.

From spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props, everything is at your fingertips. It can be a lot to sort out.

So which bets stand out on Sunday when the New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills? Let’s take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL predictions about our numbers at FanDuel Research and NFL odds References are to FanDuel Sportsbook. The lines may change after this article is published.

Patriots at Bills Betting Picks

Total over 46.5 (-110)

It’s clear to me that the Patriots aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. But the Bills have nearly exceeded that number themselves in consecutive games, so even with that in mind, that number seems too low.

The downside is that in both games there was resistance from the opposing team, which led to a heated approach from Josh Allen. We’re unlikely to get that here.

Still, the Bills have scored 30-plus points in eight straight games, meaning we shouldn’t need much from the Patriots to top this game.

Drake Maye has also breathed some life into the Patriots offensively. Since Maye took over, the offense is averaging 0.01 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire’s EPA metric) per play, up from -0.11 before. It’s still well below league average, but the full-season numbers will sell this team short.

As a result, my model’s NFL Week 16 range and overall predictions are in the 50s at this total, and I fundamentally agree with what the model says.

Amari Cooper under 32.5 yards (-114)

Last week, the Bills finally had both Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman back in the game. It resulted in Amari Cooper’s character falling into the toilet.

Cooper only ran 13 routes on 34 dropbacks and scored 0 targets. This came a week after he was targeted 14 times. They went full rotation and Cooper was at the lower end of that mix.

Cooper scores downfield targets and Allen is deadly on those throws. That means there’s a chance Cooper will attack with a flamethrower this time and make me look very stupid. I just think he’s more likely to go under that number than over it given the role he had in Week 15.

Keon Coleman Anytime touchdown (+310)

Last week’s underlying numbers were far more flattering for Coleman, prompting me to weigh in on his role. I think this is the best way to do it.

Before his injury, Coleman gained the trust of Allen. He had two red zone goals in Weeks 7 and 8 and added another before his injury in Week 9. On his return play, he almost scored but was tackled at the five-yard line.

Despite finishing with just two goals, Coleman ran 20 routes, placing third on the team. His role was strong overall and he has the build of a man who can dominate up close.

He has currently scored in 30.0% of his games so far and the implied rate here is 24.4%. Given the Bills’ scoring expectation and Coleman’s route rate last week, I think he has value here.

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Which bets stand out to you in this week’s games? Check out the latest NFL betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to see the odds for each contest.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.

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