As we move forward into Week 16, the race for No. 1 overall is getting thinner. Only six teams have three wins or fewer this season and only four have a realistic chance of securing the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

A surprising overtime win for the Carolina Panthers nearly puts them out of the running for the No. 1 pick. And while the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars remain three-win teams, the fact that they will play each other in Week 17 and the additional help needed that both have a less than one percent chance of becoming the top -Secure selection.

The chances still lie with the two teams with two defeats each: the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders. The athleteThe model now gives these two teams a combined 88 percent chance of securing the pick.

New York Giants (2-13)

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New York’s chances continue to rise and the chance of securing the No. 1 seed for the first time this season is over 50 percent. With the way the Giants are playing right now, it’s no surprise that the team remains at the top of our predictions. In this Sunday’s game, Drew Lock threw two pick-sixes at the Falcons defense and Atlanta had its highest scoring game since October. The Giants’ consistently poor quarterback play suggests that New York could potentially pull out a win in the next two weeks. The Giants have averaged just 11.8 points per game and 257.4 yards per game since releasing Daniel Jones in Week 10, both the lowest marks in the league during that span.

Remaining schedule: Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

The Raiders’ chances increased from 31 percent last week to 35 percent this week as the competition decreased and the likelihood of a two-win team securing the top spot increased. That being said, the Raiders could be a team to keep an eye on as the day progresses. Las Vegas went into halftime leading the Jaguars 13-7 in their afternoon game.

Remaining schedule: with the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Chargers

New England Patriots (3-11)

The Patriots’ odds continue to drop – from 10 percent last week. New England needs help if it wants to secure a top pick, and the window to do so is rapidly closing. The help may not be enough if the Pats maintain their 14-7 halftime lead over the Buffalo Bills. Another win on her resume would almost knock her out of the race.

Remaining schedule: Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns (3-12)

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Cleveland remains the only other team with odds above one percent. The Browns continue to be one of the more volatile teams in this conversation. This Sunday, Myles Garrett became the youngest player ever to record 100 career sacks, Jerry Jeudy is a 1,000-yard receiver and David Njoku returned from injury. Even if they get the help they need to level the playing field, there’s a good chance Cleveland can find a way to win a game and get out of contention in the next two weeks.

Remaining schedule: Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens

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(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)