In our eternal mission to predict the future, in my humble estimation, a top-down look at how an offense might attack its opponent’s defense is a good place to start.

Every season we find defenses that excel at what is known as a “run funnel,” meaning that opponents rely unusually heavily on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked from the air in neutral situations (generally, that means when the game is within seven points either way).

This column is about identifying those matches. This funnel defense analysis shouldn’t be the be-all and end-all for determining your weekly fantasy plays. It’s just another data point in your nerve-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Pass funnel matchups

Panthers vs. Bucs

As I covered the Panthers-Chiefs game last Sunday, I almost felt guilty about all the derogatory comments I’d made toward Bryce Young over the last year and a half. The guy, who had looked in no way like a viable NFL quarterback, dismantled a solid if unspectacular Kansas City coverage unit with anticipatory throws, strong throws into tight windows and audibles at the line of scrimmage as defenders the Chiefs threatened all-out attack.

Young was a completely new quarterback after Carolina’s departure. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Young’s Week 12 performance — 263 yards and a touchdown, 3.5 percent above his expected completion rate — changed his career. It might have been the best development for the Panthers in a decade.

Carolina was 7 percent above expected success rate in its narrow loss to the fake Elite Chiefs, the highest of its 2024 season. And Young’s 8.8 air yards per attempt was above his career average of 7.6. It’s all very well for Young and his pass catchers.

Now Young and the Panthers face the second-most extreme pass funnel defense in the league. The Bucs’ opponents in 2024 were above their expected pass rate in eight of 11 games, and no team had a higher neutral pass rate. Teams have targeted the Tampa secondary for good reason: Only the Patriots and Bills are allowing a higher-than-expected completion percentage and only three teams are giving up a higher pass EPA. In a game whose Vegas point total has increased from 44 to 46.5 points in the last few days, the Panthers-Bucs might even have shootout potential, or something close to it. It makes Young a nifty superflex option.

Journeyman WR David Moore was somehow Carolina’s top target earner in Week 12. He saw 10 looks from Young and had the team’s only pass score (and should have had one more). Moore, who ran a number of pass routes against the Chiefs, could be interesting this week if Jalen Coker (quad) stays out.

It was Xavier Legette and Moore who played in two wideout sets for Carolina last week, while Adam Thielen played in the team’s primary slot. The problem for Thielen: The Panthers only used three receiver sets on 70 percent of their offensive snaps. It’s difficult to pinpoint which Carolina pass catchers would benefit from a pass-heavy approach in Week 13. Any of Thielene, Moore and Legette could see a surprise appearance against Tampa. Tommy Tremble, meanwhile, will serve as the team’s TE1 while Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) will be sidelined. The fact that Tremble has seen a target on 11 percent of his routes this season doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Don’t miss any episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry And Rotoworld football show All season long, the latest player news, waiver help, starting/sitting tips and more.

Commanders vs. Titans

As we’ve noted in this space, Washington wants to run the ball more than any team since the 1949 Bears. Arthur Smith reportedly believes the commanders’ commitment to the run was “a little too much.”

Kliff Kingsbury might be forced to throw the ball a little more than usual in Week 13 against a Titans defense that has gradually become one of the NFL’s most proficient passing hoppers. Through Week 12, only four defenses are considered more extreme pass funnels; Four of the last five teams to face the Titans have performed above their expected success rate.

We saw Kliff’s commanders lean into the pass and lean on other pass funnels. In Week 6 against the Ravens, Jayden Daniels had 35 pass attempts, putting Washington nearly 8 percent above its expected pass rate. A few weeks later, Daniels had a season-high 38 attempts against the Bears, with the Commanders exceeding their expected pass rate by 10 percent.

Possibly without Brian Robinson (knee) and against a Tennessee defense that allows the fourth-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL, we should get another outing from Daniels with 30-plus attempts – barring a failed game script, of course (always a possibility with Will Levis on the side). other side of the ball).

This likely leads to what Zoomers are calling a “Giga-Smash spot” for Terry McLaurin. This means Zach Ertz, the last great Millennial NFL player, is firmly in the mix as a starter for 12 teams. Noah Brown, who scored 10 goals against Dallas last week, should be a viable flex option in deeper formats against the pass funnel titans.

Conduct funnel matchups

Saints vs. Rams

I have to admit that the Rams have snuck up on me as a reliable run funnel. Sean Mcvay’s defense is now the fifth-largest run funnel in the league – a trend I didn’t foresee since the Rams secondary is so accessible.

Five of the last six teams to play LA were below their expected pass percentage (PROE). That includes the Ravens in Week 12, who had a -14 percent PROE against the Rams, their second-best game of the season. Teams attack a Rams defense, allowing the NFL’s fifth-highest rush yards rate before contact since Week 6.

This should continue in week 13. And the main beneficiaries are obvious: Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who combined for 35 touches in the Saints’ last game. Since Derek Carr’s return to the lineup in Week 9, New Orleans’ offense has passed the ball at a low 52 percent pass rate in the neutral game script. If that remains the case and the Saints are listed as 1.5-point underdogs, Hill and Kamara should be ready for heavy workloads.

Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi dealt a blow to the few remaining Taysom doubters on Tuesday by saying Hill would continue to be a “big part of what we do” and that his involvement in Weeks 10-11 would last as long as until morale improves. He’s a must-have in 12-team formats against the run-funnel Rams.

Colts vs. Patriots

Jonathan Taylor’s authors have murmured quietly about the process, not least in public spaces. Taylor’s 56 rushes from Weeks 9-12 rank third among all running backs; His 206 rushing yards rank eighth, and he doesn’t have a single touchdown to show for.

Taylor continues to dominate the backfield in a Colts offense with the fourth-lowest passing percentage above expectations. At some point that will pay off, and it will come as early as Week 13 against a New England defense that has teams running the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the neutral schedule this season.

The Colts, who have a 53 percent success rate in neutral situations since Week 9, will likely be under a lot of pressure against the Pats unless things go wrong for Anthony Richardson and Co. New England’s defense has been pretty stingy in yards before contact this year, despite allowing the fifth-highest rate of yards after contact per rush. It’s undeniably a good spot for Taylor, who should stay in all lineups.

Bills vs. 49ers

The Niners head east to get their collective butts handed to them by a red-hot Bills team that is taking no prisoners at the moment. Buffalo, which enters the race as an 8.5-point favorite, should come out strong against San Francisco, the second-strongest run-funnel defense in the league.

It’s a nice rebound for James Cook after he was limited to 20 yards on nine rushing attempts in Week 11 against Kansas City. You may not have noticed since he scored two touchdowns and got away with it. Cook should have volume on his side against a Niners defense that saw eight of 11 opponents fall below their expected pass rate in 2024.

A run-first script for Buffalo would obviously limit the passing volume that has led Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir to (relatively) great performances of late. Be careful using Buffalo pass catchers against a 49ers defense that has seen the 10th fewest pass attempts per game.