Rochester, Minn
CNN
—

On the Sunday before Thanksgiving, a grocery store here was out of eggs.

You could get some eggs an hour and a half north in Richfield, but they weren’t cheap. This dozen cost $1.70 more – a good 40% more – than it did four months ago.

In November, egg prices rose 8.2% nationwide, recording one of the highest monthly increases in the past two decades, according to consumer price index data released last week. And it’s not just eggs – shoppers saw increases in beef, coffee and soft drinks, driving overall food prices to their biggest monthly increase since January 2023.

And there appears to be more price increases for the paper-mashed protein: wholesale prices for chicken eggs rose nearly 55% last month, and wholesale food prices rose 3.1% (the highest monthly increase in two years).

Economists say not to panic. The “egg-flation” and sudden price increases in some key food categories are the result of isolated incidents rather than something systemic and are an indication of a renewed acceleration in inflation.

But that doesn’t make it any easier for Americans to digest, as prices have risen much faster than they normally do for years.

While these price increases appear to be outliers, they add another layer of cost to products that have become significantly more expensive since before the pandemic.

“Overall food price inflation is relatively low; “It’s essentially in line with pre-pandemic conditions… nothing worrisome,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon. “But prices are still very high compared to before the pandemic.”

The once-in-a-generation bout of high inflation — although caused by a confluence of factors arising from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other events — weighed heavily on Americans and ultimately drove former President Donald Trump back to the White House .

Long before “inflation” became a term, food prices were subject to fluctuations due to weather events, crop yields, disease, war, supply chain disruptions, spikes in demand, or other temporary disruptions.

And that’s exactly what’s happening here with eggs (and beef, and coffee, and orange juice).

“Inflation is what it is, but we’re seeing more dramatic increases in parts of the food department, not necessarily overall,” said Billy Roberts, senior food and beverage analyst at CoBank, a credit union that serves farms.

Eggs (+37.5% annually): An outbreak of bird flu is devastating flocks across the country, reducing supplies at a time when Americans are in the holiday spirit and baking, cooking and eating out more.

The USDA in December further revised U.S. egg supply estimates downward and raised price forecasts for 2025.

Beef (+5% annually): According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the U.S. cattle population is at its lowest level in more than 70 years. Due to drought and other rising costs, the decline is expected to continue until 2025 as the drought continues.

Cattle herd expansion in the U.S. isn’t expected to begin until 2026 or 2027, according to a CoBank report released last week.

Orange juice (frozen juices +17.2% annually; fresh juices 3.1% annually): Frozen, non-carbonated juices tell the clearest message for a beverage category hit by hurricanes, bad weather and a citrus disease. And the future for orange juice may look even bleaker as Brazil – which supplies about 30% of America’s imported orange juice – recorded its worst harvest in decades due to flooding, drought and citrus greening disease.

“I think these increases (in orange juice prices) won’t necessarily be temporary,” CoBank’s Roberts said. “I think there will be some supply issues underlying these price increases.”

Coffee (+1.9% annually): The same weather events that are hampering Brazil’s citrus production negatively impacted the second most consumed beverage in the United States. Arabica coffee beans, which account for the majority of global coffee bean production, sold for a record $3.44 per pound last week.

Unfortunately, the future prospects are bleak for lovers of morning coffee drinking.

“Climate change is getting worse. Just imagine worse weather, rising temperatures and the direct impact on the people working on the coffee plantations,” Michael Hoffmann, professor emeritus at Cornell University’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, told CNN earlier this year. “It’s probably just going to make coffee more expensive for (consumers).”

Chocolate (wholesale chocolate production from cocoa +108.7% annually): Over the past three years, the cocoa-producing regions of West Africa, which account for over 70% of the world’s cocoa supply, have been hit by a series of adverse weather events. Candy makers have responded by reducing the size of their products, changing recipes and focusing more on non-chocolate offerings.

“Cocoa costs, which could remain high through 2026, are testing the confectionery industry on multiple levels,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note last week.

Although parts of the food industry are experiencing cost increases for certain reasons, these price spikes simply have a different impact these days – especially when they occur at the same time.

According to the latest CPI report, food prices rose 1.6% year-on-year through November. That annual rate has trended below overall inflation (which accelerated to 2.7% last month) and reached the 2008-2019 average, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

The annual rate of food price inflation is the highest since this time last year; However, it is a far cry from 2022, when it averaged 11.4% and peaked at 13.5% – well above the headline inflation peak of 9.1%.

This rapid pace meant that food prices were now 27% higher than they were in February 2020, before the pandemic hit the US. And some categories have had it far worse than others over that period: eggs are up 81% in the last four years, margarine is up 55%, beef and veal are up 37%; and juices are up 32%.

“That’s the hard part – food prices are unlikely to fall significantly and return to 2019 levels,” Daco said. “In general, the best one can hope for is a stabilization of prices.”

Trump said last week that he hopes to lower food prices by drilling for more oil domestically, which in turn could lower gas prices and transportation costs.

Economists and food industry experts say it’s not that simple. Food manufacturers have expanded their presence across the country to save on mileage, and the rise in transportation costs is largely due to driver shortages.

Separately, economists and businesses have sounded the alarm, saying other pledges by President-elect Trump — notably 25 percent tariffs against Mexico and Canada and mass deportations — could drive up food prices and accelerate headline inflation again.

It’s nearly impossible to avoid rising food prices, so consumers and businesses alike are forced to adapt.

“I think we’re going to continue to see consumers trying to stretch their grocery dollar in every way they can, not just because of grocery prices, but also because it seems like the prices of everything are going up,” Roberts said.

Vidlak’s Brookside Cafe in Omaha, Nebraska, has been serving breakfast and lunch for 28 years, but is coming under pressure as prices for key ingredients rise. Founder Roger Vidlak said he is doing everything he can to avoid passing those costs on to customers.

“The eggs have been ridiculous lately,” Vidlak said over the cacophony of noise on a busy Friday. “Six months ago you could get a case of it for $18 to $20. They are currently up to $75 for a 15-dozen box.”

But he found some workarounds. In addition to keeping an eye on weekly price controls, Vidlak turned to cage-free eggs, which were less affected by bird flu and are significantly cheaper – as was liquid egg mix.

“I haven’t raised my prices in probably six months,” he said. “I’ll just suck it up.”

Every time prices go up, his business takes a hit, but he doesn’t want that to negatively impact the people on the other side of those plates of steak and eggs.

“I’m a family-run restaurant, so I just understand that because I have hundreds of regular customers, some of them here every day,” he said. “You don’t want to outdo them.”

He added: “Of course you want to make money, but you don’t have to do it all in one day.”