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If the Toronto Blue Jays had done the obvious and signed Vladimir Guerrero to a contract extension a year or two ago, it would have been a nice surprise. It would have proven that management intended to remain competitive. It would have been (relatively) cheap. It would have made everyone happy.

All of that is out the window now.

The Jays like to be reserved when it comes to what they do (or, more often, what they don’t do). This depends on players being equally reserved. Guerrero simply screwed up this formula. He went on a Spanish-language talk show and challenged the Jays to re-sign him.

He said he was “ready to go,” but it wouldn’t be long. Guerrero set an arbitrary end date for contract negotiations that have not yet begun in earnest — the first full day of spring training. Then it’s time for free agency.

Guerrero grumbled about the amount offered so far and left out a figure that is shrouded in rumor – $340 million. The Jays are said to have already offered him that.

Considering that Juan Soto – who is Guerrero’s age and does typical Guerrero things – just signed for more than double that, $340 million is a low sum. If it’s true, it’s not even worth a counter. Guerrero’s price tag is over $500 million.

Based on the video of this interview, Guerrero looks slim and relaxed. He looks like a guy ready to break a few hearts. This is terrible news for Toronto.

For many years, the Jays, like all teams, had the edge in this back-and-forth. Theoretically, they have an unlimited amount to offer. As long as a player can be convinced that any number he dreams of is possible, the team can move him around the field at will.

The Jays seemed to enjoy doing this with Guerrero, nodding at the idea of ​​extending him but never fully committing to it. On other teams, a player of Guerrero’s caliber is a Veronica. He was always a Betty in Toronto.

It took a while, but Guerrero figured out the judo to beat this – when they don’t talk, you start. It’s the moment when the potential buyer stops bidding and turns to walk away. If the seller calls after him, the buyer wins. Guerrero was walking out the door. Will the Jays recall him?

When they do it, it is from a position of extreme weakness. Toronto has cash, but can’t go beyond a first date. Every time they are publicly disposed of – by Shohei Ohtani, by Soto, by Max Fried – they shine a little more.

They now have another valuable prospect out there – free agent starter Corbin Burnes. If Burnes stops returning her text messages, the offseason will be another bust for the Jays.

Guerrero knows he could soon be Toronto’s last option. After him came the flood of reconstruction. Now he’s the one leading his current team by the collar.

Guerrero has three options here. The Jays are out of options. From this point on, their options are whatever Guerrero allows them.

His first option is to negotiate an extension in good faith. I don’t know why he would do that. If I were his agent and saw him talking to a Blue Jays manager, I would slap the phone out of his hand.

Two years ago, the largest deal in baseball history was for $426 million. A year ago it was $700 million. Now it’s $765 million. The longer Guerrero waits, the higher his price will rise.

The second option is to try to force a trade. He would do this by continuing to reveal details of the ongoing talks while also beginning to make his dissatisfaction with the club clear.

The date of Guerrero’s appearance — the start of spring training — is unusual. Players at his position are more likely to say they will negotiate by the end of spring training. This gives the team time to convince themselves that they are a contender.

If the Jays head to Dunedin in February with no major changes other than the addition of Andrés Giménez, they will know they are not contenders. Your fans will know it too. At that point, there was no chance of performing the six-week hypnosis that convinces otherwise reasonable people that Ernie Clement is the next Brooks Robinson.

If the Jays know for certain that Guerrero will leave in free agency before the start of spring training, trading him is a viable option.

It’s been a long time since “Sensy” was this team’s MO. But if the slew of prospects in return for Guerrero earns praise from the right US media, Blue Jays managers may keep their jobs for the year. That could make them swing.

The last option is the most likely – that Guerrero takes on the Jays.

If he wanted to negotiate in good faith, he would keep it quiet. If a trade was his top priority, he would indicate it now. That he does this strange dance during the traditionally quiet part of the baseball calendar suggests that he enjoys watching his bosses jump.

Instead of having a cozy Christmas with the cousins, they’ll be on Zoom calls to figure out how to get a handle on this latest disaster. Spring training begins in seven weeks. The longer the Jays stay, the more it seems like the first baseman is the true club president. If Guerrero really wants to mess with them, he will accept all conversations until the last moment and then break them off in spectacular fashion. Perhaps through a long tirade to the press upon arrival in Dunedin, à la Jose Bautista in 2016.

Bautista didn’t get what he wanted, but he ruined the good vibes of a hopeful season. That was the end of Toronto’s last great era.

Guerrero is not Bautista. One way or another he gets what he wants.

What the Jays need to figure out on the fly is whether this is about money, or about making them look stupid, or both.