The odds for a white Christmas along Colorado’s Front Range aren’t good.

The region experienced a range of warm and dry weather conditions in the days leading up to the holiday. A storm system could bring rain to Metro Denver by Christmas afternoon or evening. However, the chance of snow is getting smaller, said David Barjenbruch, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

“The storm doesn’t appear to be particularly strong,” Barjenbruch told CPR News.

In the high country of Colorado, it’s a different story. State climatologist Russ Schumacher said in an email that if you make it to the mountains, “you’re lucky” because “Colorado’s high elevations are a sure bet for a white Christmas,” at least by the common definition of “at least.” There is already an inch of snow on the ground.

Without further forecast rainfall, the region is expected to experience one of the hottest and driest Decembers on record. Barjenbruch said Denver had only a hint of snow in the last month of the year and temperatures were about nine degrees above average.

The Front Range hasn’t had a Christmas snowstorm since 2015, but Barjenbruch noted that a storm before the holiday in 2022 brought enough snow to give residents a “white Christmas.”

While the recent weather has helped travelers reach their destinations, it hasn’t helped Colorado’s ongoing drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update, released Dec. 19, shows that most of the northern Front Range is currently experiencing a “moderate” or “severe” drought. A smaller area on the border of Larimer County and Weld County is currently experiencing an “extreme” drought.

Colorado’s mountain snowpack has also suffered from the dry weather. According to the National Weather and Climate Center, the average snowpack nationwide fell to 85 percent on December 23. This is a reversal from earlier in the year, when these levels were higher than normal due to a wetter November in high country Colorado.

There are signs that the dry, warm conditions are affecting tourism on the Western Slope: Yesterday, organizers of the Meeker Skijor event canceled the Jan. 3-5 event due to a lack of snow.

However, it appears the dry weather won’t last forever. Barjenbruch said models indicate colder and snowier conditions will occur in early January.