Many Coloradans dream of a white Christmas, but the chances of that happening in the Denver metro area this year are slim.

Before we make any predictions, let’s be clear about what a white Christmas actually is.

The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a white Christmas as “1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.”

National Weather Service

The NWS map shows the average probability of a white Christmas across the country. The closer an area is to white, the closer the chance of a white Christmas is to 100%.

So in the mountains of Colorado, a white Christmas is almost guaranteed. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Crested Butte has a 99% chance of a white Christmas.

In the southeastern corner of the state, the chance is closer to 20%. And in Denver the probability is between 40 and 50%. That could mean a light shower later in the day.

The map is just an average, so what actually happens may change from year to year.

For example, last year it snowed in the subway on Christmas Eve. The day after Christmas, snowstorms hit the northeastern plains. But on Christmas Day itself, no snow was recorded on the ground at Denver International Airport. Even though it snowed elsewhere, at least in Denver it won’t go down in history as a white Christmas.

According to NOAA, the historical probability of experiencing a white Christmas is well below 50% in most major U.S. cities. And it’s incredibly rare for it to snow on Christmas in consecutive years. This has only happened twice in Denver, most recently in 2014 and 2015.