Merry Christmas! Today we have an NFL doubleheader: The Kansas City Chiefs face the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine where the smart money is on both games with our VSiN NFL betting splits, updated every 5 minutes and coming directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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The Chiefs (14-1) have won five straight games and just beat the Texans 27-19, making them a 3.5-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Steelers (10-5) are coming off two straight losses and were just steamrolled by the Ravens 34-17 without covering as 7-point road dogs.

The early opener for this game was Steelers -1.5 at home. However, we quickly saw a significant shift in favor of the Chiefs, making Kansas City the away favorite by 1.5 points. The public believes this line is far too short, with 64% of spread bets on DraftKings and 72% of spread bets on Circa pegging the points with Kansas City. This one-sided support pushed the Chiefs from -1.5 to -3. However, when the key number 3 was available, we saw a strong buyback at the Steelers +3, bringing the line back down to 2.5. Several deals increase Steelers +2.5 (-115), while others decrease to +2. In other words, the movement on game day is back toward Pittsburgh and the points.

Pittsburgh has notable contrarian value as they only receive about a third of the tickets to a nationally televised, high-stakes game. The Steelers have little buy value as an unpopular home dog in a losing streak against a selling favorite in a winning streak. This is also a Wiseguy System match with “Mike Tomlin as a Dog,” who has racked up points for nearly 65% ​​of his career. Pittsburgh will also welcome back star WR George Pickens, who is expected to be back after missing the last three games. Those who want to be contrarian and support the Steelers but also missed the key +3 number could instead target Pittsburgh in a Wong teaser. By increasing the Steelers from +2.5 to +8.5 (or +2 to +8), bettors can strategically pass on key numbers 3 and 7.

The early opener total was just 41. Buoyed by the return of Pickens, we saw a strong adjustment in the over, taking the total from 41 to 45. Both the pros and the Joes seem to be leaning forward. On DraftKings, the over receives 63% of the bets and 65% of the dollars. At Circa, the over takes 59% of the bets and 66% of the dollars. The weather in Pittsburgh looks ideal as the forecast calls for high temperatures with partly cloudy skies and mild winds of 5 mph.

Player props to consider

Noah Gray over 18.5 receiving yards (-110): Gray has exceeded this number in 5 of his last 6 games and 9 of his last 12 games. He has also exceeded that number in six consecutive away games. This is also a buy-low game against Gray, as he only caught one pass for 10 yards against the Texans last week. Gray ranks 4th on the team in receptions and targets. He also has the third-most receiving yards (430) along with DeAndre Hopkins.

The Ravens (10-5) have won two straight and just defeated the Steelers 34-17, making them a 7-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Texans’ (9-6) winning streak just ended, falling to the Chiefs 27-19 and failing to catch up as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The crowd rushes to the window to hand the points to the Ravens, who receive 80% of the spread bets on DraftKings and 79% of the spread bets on Circa. This one-sided support pushed Baltimore from -3 to -6, with some stores like Circa even reaching -6.5. All movement and liability rested with Baltimore, with no apparent buyout from the Texans. The Ravens are expected to be a popular public teaser game (-6 to a pick’em), meaning Baltimore simply has to win the game outright and not cover the spread. Houston is the top bet against the public as the Texans receive less than a quarter of the spread bets in the entire market. As a contrarian dog with an inflated line, the Texans also have a low buy value as they opened at +3 and are now at +6.5.

In terms of total value, the opening price was 47.5 and most of the market has fallen slightly to 47. This half-point drop is notable because the public is hammering on the over (73% of bets on DraftKings and 68% of bets on Circa). , yet the total number has fallen. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. Baltimore is the best over team in the NFL at 12-3. However, Houston is 10-5 in the minors, making it the best minor team in the NFL.

Player props to consider

Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): Mixon has exceeded this number in five straight home games. This is also a buy-low overplay, as Mixon only caught one pass for 14 yards against the Chiefs last week. The Texans are a dog in a high-overall game, meaning they’ll likely have to focus on the passing game when they’re behind and need to catch up. This game is also played indoors, which bodes well for an offensive performance in the fast lane.