PFF breaks down the Christmas Day fixtures by looking at team records, key trends and match overviews before delivering the best bets, powered by PFF’s proven betting model.

Kansas City leaders (-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Total: 44)

Game overview

With the Chiefs just one win away from the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs, they have chosen the right time to enter the betting markets. Kansas City has covered the lead in each of its last two games after failing to do so in seven straight meetings earlier this season.

However, it remains a challenge for the Chiefs to be considered the away favorite as they hold an ATS record of 2-2-1 away from Arrowhead this season.

In contrast, the Steelers endured a disappointing weekend, seeing their hopes of capturing the AFC’s top seed fade while opening the door for Baltimore to take control of the division. Pittsburgh has now failed to close the gap as significant road underdogs in consecutive games, a marked change from their 5-0 ATS record when they received 13 points a week ago.

The stakes couldn’t be higher as the Steelers return home with a simple mission: win and secure the AFC North crown. With an impressive ATS home record of 5-1 – the only miss coming in Week 5 – expect Mike Tomlin’s team to be at their best in this critical period.

QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 227.5 passing yards (-113)

December has been unkind to Wilson, as the veteran quarterback has earned a PFF passing grade of 67.7 since the start of the month. During that time, he failed to exceed that passing yards limit in three consecutive games, averaging just 167 yards per game.

This downturn is closely related to the absence of WR George Pickens, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and has yet to make a playing time decision in a short week.

Without Pickens, the Chiefs’ coverage unit is well-positioned to stifle the Steelers’ already limited passing attack. Kansas City’s defense ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback since the start of December, holding opponents to just 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

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Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs Houston Texan (Total: 46.5)

Game overview

With their spot in the playoffs secured, the Ravens are now aiming for the AFC North title. Should Pittsburgh fall early on Christmas Day, Baltimore will have a chance to take control of the division with just one game left in the regular season.

The Ravens have been a reliable team in the betting markets, posting a 3-1 ATS record in their last four games. This stretch features two away favorites who improve their season record to 5-2 ATS when picking up points on the road.

With the AFC South title secured, the Texans will now focus on advancing to the No. 3 seed in the AFC. A loss at Pittsburgh earlier in the day could provide additional motivation, as a home win would give Houston a lead in conference wins and help them avoid a tough first-round playoff matchup against the AFC North.

Houston has been underdogs only once at home this season, a narrow loss to Detroit that ended with a game-winning field goal as time expired, although they managed to cover as a four-point dog. However, Texans bettors endured mixed results in December, with the team posting an ATS record of 1-1-1 this month.

TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texan: Over 34.5 receiving yards (-113)

Tank Dell’s devastating injury last week adds to a series of setbacks for the Texans’ receiver room, with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and now Dell all missing this season. These absences have contributed to the inconsistency of the passing game.

With Dell out, Collins and Dalton Schultz will have to take on more responsibility. Schultz has exceeded that reception limit in two of his last three games, demonstrating his ability to step up when needed.

While the Ravens’ coverage has improved and Kyle Hamilton is patrolling the back end, the tight ends continue to have success against them. Baltimore has allowed a tight end to record more than 34.5 receiving yards in 12 of 15 games this season, making Schultz a strong candidate for the over.

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