The Toronto Raptors’ hard work led to a well-deserved win last time out, and they will look to carry that momentum into an NBA in-season tournament game against the Miami Heat.

My Raptors vs. Heat predictions highlight Scottie Barnes’ work ethic, especially his work ethic on the boards.

Check out my NBA picks for this Eastern Conference game on November 29th.

Raptors vs Heat prediction

My Raptors picks
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (+100 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis
The Toronto Raptors have arguably been better than their record all season, as evidenced by their 13-6 record against the spread. And now that Scottie Barnes is back, the wins are starting to come.

In fact, the Raps will face the winner of the Miami Heat in three of their last five games in the NBA in-season tournament tonight.

Having Barnes back is a big deal because he seems to be the missing piece. The former Rookie of the Year has not only scored 20.8 points per game since his return, but also averaged nine rebounds and 6.8 assists.

It’s been an inconsistent start to the season for the Heat, who come into this game with an 8-8 record in a row while also being 7-9 ATS. The defense is still solid, but the offense has shown room for improvement, ranking 18th in offensive rating and 21st in effective field goal percentage.

Another area where Miami is struggling is discussions. The Heat rank 20th in the NBA in rebound rate while surrendering the fifth-most opponent rebounds per game. That means Barnes could be a problem on the glass tonight.

Barnes has been a beast on the boards, grabbing 33 rebounds in his last three games. His rebound prop is 7.5 on the board.

He had no fewer than seven boards during this stretch and our Covers Prop Projections have him even grabbing 8.0 rebounds for this match. With the over at even money, I’m backing Barnes to continue cleaning the glass.

Raptors vs. Heat, same game

Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds

Raptors +7.5

Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes

The Raptors have been cashing in on bets all season, and I think they’re well-positioned to cash in on another one tonight.

That’s because I believe Toronto, which ranks fourth in the NBA in rebound rate, can win the battle on the boards and get out and force the Heat to play at their pace. The more possessions, the better.

The other reason to like the Raptors here is that the defense is improving. Over the last eight games, they rank seventh in defensive rating, while Miami is a slow team that ranks 18th in eFG%.

The Raps were particularly good at defending the perimeter and ranked sixth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

For this reason, I’m targeting Duncan Robinson to go below his three-point combination. The value for this match is 2.5, and although he hit six treys in the last game against the Hornets, he has only exceeded that number twice in his last eight games.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raptors vs Heat odds

Raptors vs Heat live odds

Raptors vs. Heat opening odds

• Spread: Toronto +7 | Miami -7
• Money line: Toronto +240 | Miami -300
• Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Below 221.5

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada

Raptors vs. Heat spread and over/under analysis

• The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference game as seven-point underdogs, and after some early action, it was mostly Heat money that flowed in, with the odds now sitting at 7.5.
• The Raptors continue to be one of the best bets in the NBA with an ATS record of 13-6. Toronto achieved this thanks to its fast-paced, unselfish offense that never makes the playoffs.
• The total was 221.5 and was steadily lowered to 219.5 as of Friday afternoon.
• The Raptors defense was terrible early in the season and with the fast offense they conceded a lot of overs. But the defense has steadily improved and they now sit 21st in DEF standings. Combine that with the Heat’s slow pace and inefficient offense, and the under-money makes sense.

Raptors vs Heat trend

The under is 9-2 in the Raptors’ last 11 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.

How to watch Raptors vs. Heat

Current Raptors vs. Heat injuries

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