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Early indications suggest a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines plane, a US official told CNN, as Azerbaijan held a day of mourning for the dozens of victims of the disaster.

Evidence suggests a Russian system attacked Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before it crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, the U.S. official said Thursday.

This is the first time the U.S. has issued an assessment of Wednesday’s passenger jet crash that killed at least 38 of the 67 people on board.

If the initial indications are ultimately confirmed, it may be a case of mistaken identity, the US official said, in which poorly trained Russian units negligently attacked Ukraine’s use of drones.

Officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, three countries linked to the disaster, urged people not to speculate about the crash until the investigation is complete.

Here’s what we know about the crash so far.

The Azerbaijan Airlines flight flew from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, before making an emergency landing about three kilometers (1.8 miles) from Aktau in Kazakhstan, the airline said on Wednesday.

Russian state media reported that the plane was diverted due to heavy fog in Grozny.

According to flight tracking website Flightradar24, the plane took off at 7:55 a.m. Azerbaijan standard time (10:55 p.m. Tuesday ET) on Wednesday and crashed at 10:28 a.m. Azerbaijan standard time (1:28 a.m. Wednesday ET).

Officials did not immediately explain why the plane crossed the Caspian Sea, even though Baku and Grozny are to the west and Aktau to the east.

Kazakh Transport Minister Marat Karabayev said Thursday that a Kazakh control center received a signal from Russia that the flight was being diverted about 45 minutes before the plane crashed.

The Russian dispatcher said the plane had a fault in its control systems and that the crew decided to fly to Aktau after receiving reports of bad weather, Karabayev said. The dispatcher later said that “an oxygen tank exploded in the passenger cabin and the passengers lost consciousness,” according to Karabayev.

While the Azerbaijan Airlines crew was making two landing approaches at Aktau airport, the plane went off course after the crash and lost communication with Aktau air traffic controllers, Karabayev said.

Flightradar24 said in a social media post that the plane was “exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.” According to Flightradar24, GPS interference can significantly impact an aircraft’s ability to navigate and communicate, creating potential safety risks.

Data and video of the crash “also suggest possible control issues with the aircraft,” Flightradar24 said.

At least 38 of the 67 people on board the plane died in the crash, Kazakh authorities confirmed, including two pilots and a flight attendant.

About 29 survivors, including two children, were rescued from the rubble, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bosumbayev said.

According to preliminary information from the Kazakh Ministry of Transport, 37 of the plane’s passengers were Azerbaijani citizens and 16 came from Russia, as well as six from Kazakhstan and three from Kyrgyzstan. None of the survivors were Kazakh nationals, Bozumbayev said.

Azerbaijan’s state news agency AZERTAC reported that 12 survivors will be transported back to Azerbaijan on Thursday, five of whom are in a “serious but stable condition.” These five people will be flown back by a special aircraft operated by the country’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, AZERTAC said.

NATO spokesman Farah Dakhlallah said in a social media post that the alliance’s “thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims” of the disaster. “We wish those injured in the accident a speedy recovery and call for a full investigation,” she wrote.

Videos and images of the plane after the crash show perforations in its fuselage that resemble damage from shrapnel or debris. The cause of these holes is not confirmed.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially told AZERTAC that the incident was caused by the plane’s collision with a flock of birds, the outlet reported. Russia’s Federal Aviation Administration Rosaviatsia also said the plane crashed after colliding with birds.

However, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, part of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, denied this, claiming on social media that the plane was “shot down by a Russian air defense system.”

The crash occurred shortly after Ukrainian drone strikes hit southern Russia. Drone activity has closed airports in the region in the past, and the nearest Russian airport on the plane’s route was closed Wednesday morning.

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but didn’t,” Kovalenko said, speculating that authorities will try to cover up the real reason for the crash, including the holes in the plane, because it would be “inconvenient.” , to blame him on Russia.

Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defense expert and CEO of risk consultancy Sibylline, told BBC Radio 4 on Thursday that the Russian-fired plane is “the best theory that fits all the available facts that we know of.” Crump added that Russian air defenses were active in Grozny at the time the plane was damaged.

“I don’t think that’s intentional at all,” he noted, noting that Russia is “very concerned” about active Ukrainian drones with longer ranges that “very often don’t get shot down.”

Osprey Flight Solutions, a U.K.-based company that analyzes security risks in the aviation sector, also said in a warning to airlines that the flight “was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

The US official who spoke to CNN on Thursday did not say what type of system may have shot down the passenger plane. Russia has a number of anti-aircraft systems, including its advanced S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as its Pantsir medium-range system and others.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday it was wrong to speculate about the cause of the plane crash before an investigation had been conducted, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported.

Maulen Ashimbayev, chairman of the Kazakh Senate, said on Thursday that “the nature of this damage and the causes of the disaster are currently unknown.”

A commission was set up to investigate the crash, which included representatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia, said Ashimbayev.

Kanat Bozumbayev, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister, said that “even the preliminary cause cannot be determined yet, as specialists are needed for this.”

“They will carry out the work and then it will be clear,” Bozumbayev said on Thursday.