The Toronto Raptors travel to FedEx Forum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Boxing Day. Toronto is on an eight-game losing streak, but RJ Barrett continues to fill the basket, and my Raptors vs. Grizzlies predictions are for that to continue.

Here are my top free NBA picks for this Boxing Day matchup on December 26th.

Raptors vs Grizzlies prediction

My Raptors picks
RJ Barrett over 22.5 points (-125 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis

RJ Barrett leads the Toronto Raptors with 23.5 points per game and a field shooting percentage of 45.7%. Even when Scottie Barnes returned to the lineup in late November, Barrett remained the top scoring option.

Over the last month, Barret has scored more than 23 points in six of nine games and is averaging 24.9 ppg over that span. Even though the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, there are some reasons to believe Barrett will put up points tonight.

The Grizz play at the fastest pace in the league, which has earned them 15th place in the league in points allowed per game (113.0). Memphis also ranks just 20th in the league in fastbreak points allowed per game (15.8 ppg) while ranking 18th in defending the rim, according to ShotQualityBets.

Barrett ranks third in the league in transition PPG (6.7) and is in the top 20th percentile when attacking the rim.

Raptors vs. Grizzlies, same game play

RJ Barrett Over 22.5 points

Zach Edey Under 10.5 points

Over 239.5

With center Jakob Poeltl out with a groin injury, Toronto is playing with a smaller lineup. The Raps lined up 6-foot-2 Jonathan Mogbo in the middle, while Kelly Olynyk and Chris Boucher came off the bench. Because of that mobility, Memphis will likely have to limit playing time for rookie big man Zach Edey.

The 7-foot-4, 305-pound Edey has had his lack of foot speed exposed by opposing bigs who can move him up and down the field or drag him to the edge. The Toronto native managed just three points in his last contest and won’t be on the floor enough to get above 10.5 points tonight.

The Raptors finished sixth in the league last month and their ability to score in transition should help them put up points against the speedy Grizzlies. However, the Raps also rank 23rd in the league in defensive rating and will have a hard time slowing down a Memphis squad that leads the NBA with 122.7 ppg.

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Raptors vs Grizzlies odds

Raptors vs Grizzlies live odds

Raptors vs. Grizzlies opening odds

• Spread: Toronto +12 | Memphis-12
• Money line: Toronto +500 | Memphis -700
• Over/Under: About 237.5 | Below 237.5

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada

Raptors vs. Grizzlies distribution and over/under analysis

• The spread narrowed by half a point as early money came in on the over, moving the total from 237.5 to 239.5.
• The Raptors have lost eight straight games but are 4-3-1 ATS during that span.
• The Grizzlies are fresh off a loss to the Clippers, but are 16-6 SU and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games.
• Toronto was second in the NBA in rebounding rate (51.8%) a week ago. Poeltl has missed the last three games and the Raps are last in the league in scoring percentage (43.4%) during that span.

Raptors vs Grizzlies trend

The Raptors have covered the spread in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.90 units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Grizzlies.

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