The Heat will be without superstar Jimmy Butler for the fifth straight season and the team will look to get back on the winning list after Saturday’s loss to the Hawks. The Rockets’ four-game winning streak was ended with a point loss to Minnesota on Friday, and Houston will be hungry for a win in front of their home crowd.

My Heat vs. Rockets predictions are that Tyler Herro will have a productive night without Jimmy Butler. Read my NBA picks to learn why you should take the over on Herro’s combo prop tonight.

Heat vs Rockets prediction

My best choice
Tyler Herro Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)

My analysis

Tyler Herro is enjoying a productive season, consistently posting career highs with averages of 23.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists. That’s a good 34.7 PRAs, meaning an average performance against the Houston Rockets will earn the over for this prop.

Herro has been even better in his last eight games, averaging 24.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists. He reached the over in four of those eight appearances and hit exactly 33 PRAs in another appearance.

Herro has averaged 34.4 PRAs with Jimmy Butler and 37.7 in nine games without him. In those nine games without Butler, Herro reached the over five times and posted another game with 33 PRAs. His usage rate increased from 27.1 to 28.5 in those games.

On the road, Herro averages 34.9 PRAs compared to 34.6 at home. He has reached the over in 14 of 29 total games on this line, posting 32 or 33 PRAs in four games.

The Rockets were a subpar game for opposing guards, but Herro should see enough effort and playing time to get him over the hump even against a stout defense. Key fullback Dillon Brooks has missed three straight times, and if he’s out, that backup will be even more convenient for Herro.

Same game between Heat and Rockets

Tyler Herro Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists

Rockets money line

Jabari Smith Jr. Over 12.5 points

The Rockets haven’t beaten the Miami Heat since November 2019, but I expect that five-year drought to end tonight.

Thanks to the team’s strong defense and all-around contributions on offense, Houston is among the top seeds in a highly competitive Western Conference. The Rockets have a solid combination of youth and experience and the rotation is one of the deepest in the association. Houston has an 11-4 record at home and Miami is just 5-9 on the road.

Jabari Smith Jr. has scored at least 13 points in 15 of 31 games this season. That’s just under half of his total appearances, but he was a more prolific goalscorer at home than away.

Smith Jr. has averaged 13.7 points at home while scoring just 10.6 on the road, and he has scored at least 13 points in eight of 15 games at Toyota Center. He scored at least 13 points in six consecutive games before losing two games recently. In his last two games, Smith Jr. has scored a total of just 18 points on 6 of 19 shooting. He’s in a good position to bounce back against a team that has allowed 22.1 points to PFs over the last seven games.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Rockets odds

Live odds for Heat vs. Rockets

Heat vs. Rockets opening odds

• Spread: Miami +8.5 (-110) | Houston -8.5 (-110)
• Money line: Miami +290 | Houston -370
• Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Below 216.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Heat vs. Rockets distribution and over/under analysis

• Miami has won and covered just two of its last six games, increasing the team’s record to 15-14 in a row and 13-16 ATS.
• Houston has won and covered in six of its last eight games, and the team is currently 21-10 and 19-12 ATS.
• The Heat have reached the over in three of the last six games and 16 of 29 games this season.
• The Rockets have reached the over in four of their last five games and the team is 16-15 to the over this season.

Heat vs. Rockets trend.

Miami has won eight straight games against Houston since the 2020-21 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets.

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