The first half of January will see dramatically colder and snowier days in the Midwest, East and South

The first half of January will see dramatically colder and snowier days in the Midwest, East and South

The clock is ticking on the broad stretch of mild Pacific air that has infiltrated much of the United States over the past week. AccuWeather meteorologists indicate that drastically colder air from the Arctic will move into the central, southern and eastern states and could form a stormy pattern with areas of significant snow and ice in the first half of January.

The heaviness of the cold air could be dangerous, harmful and disruptive. At a minimum, the upcoming development could be costly for those struggling to pay their energy bills and for travelers heading home from vacation or embarking on a business trip in the first weeks of 2025.

The jet stream pattern, which is generally west to east this weekend, will soon develop a large bend to the south. When this happens, the doors to the Arctic will open.

The major dip in the jet stream next week will develop gradually rather than in a sudden, massive shift.

The first exploits of colder air will begin in the middle and end of next week after a storm moving from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025.

“Some of the first subzero temperatures will occur over parts of the Northern Plains late this week and then ease,” said Paul Pastelok, senior long-range meteorologist at AccuWeather.

But as the jet stream collapse continues to develop, the Arctic Express will be in full swing during the first full week of January.

“The first Arctic high pressure system will descend south across the Plains and hit Texas early next week,” Pastelok said. “This air mass will continue to track the storm along the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and Southeast on January 8-9.”

The end result will send a significant amount of Arctic air directly southward over the north-central states and then into parts of the south-central and southeastern states.

The Chicago area, for example, is expected to experience mild conditions through Tuesday, with highs around 40°F. However, highs will be no better than the 20s from Friday through next weekend as arctic air currents become stronger, and then no better than the 10s on Jan. 7-10.

At the trough of Arctic outbreak air, temperatures may be well below historical averages before the middle of the month, which is typically among the coldest days of the winter.

If the cold air intensifies before mid-January, a portion of the north central states will experience subfreezing temperatures. As more information becomes available, temperature forecasts could trend downward.

Should the cold snap reach its full potential, temperature variations from the Midwest to the Interior Southeast could fall to 30 to 40 degrees below historical averages during the first to second full weeks of January.

Cold air of this magnitude across hundreds of thousands of square miles could cause problems with the electrical grid and possibly repeated power outages.

As much colder air blows in waves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, shifting bands of heavy lake snow will emerge that may make travel difficult, increase the risk of multiple vehicle convoys and even close some major highways at times. Several feet of snow may bury some communities where the heaviest lake effect snow bands remain.

This pattern is likely interspersed with different storms of varying strength and track. Depending on where exactly these storms move, a band of heavy snow and a wintry mix will likely occur north and west of each system’s low pressure center.

While it is still too far away to determine the exact track of the storms, the upcoming pattern is likely to support storms that bring snow or a wintry mix instead of plain rain in many areas.

Not only could some storms result in a general snowfall or two across parts of the Midwest, but there is also some risk of accumulating snow moving as far as the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts and possibly parts of the south-central and southeastern states.

“Where the storms produce significant snowfall, this snowpack will help spread more Arctic air southward,” Pastelok said.

Major metropolitan areas such as Chicago, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, DC, Charlotte, Atlanta and others could be affected by snow accumulation during the pattern. It is not entirely out of the question that at least one of the storms will attempt to bring a period of snow and/or ice to the Houston to New Orleans zone late next week.

This type of weather pattern, occurring on some of the coldest winter days on record, could cause significant travel disruption and certainly an increase in energy demand across much of the central and eastern United States

“Given the situation we’re seeing now, the anchor for the cold air could be centered over the Midwest rather than the Northeast,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “The pattern favors storms weakening as they move into the Ohio Valley but then reforming along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An atmospheric roadblock over eastern Canada could prevent the storms from traveling too far north, and the main snow threat could prevent that.” Snow shift could shift further south this winter than before. Snow could occur over part of the Mid-Atlantic region and the interior Southeast during the first half of January.

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Cold air waves entering the South Central and Southeast states could cause problems with frozen pipes and water damage in poorly insulated or exposed homes and buildings during the pattern.

“We will be watching closely to see how far south the cold air can move into vulnerable areas like Florida, southern Louisiana and Texas,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. “It is possible that subfreezing temperatures could reach these extreme southern locations in the first half of January.”

It is possible that temperatures will remain below freezing in parts of the southern states for many consecutive hours or days. Some pump systems may not be able to keep up. Similar outbreaks in the Arctic have tested the power grid in the past.

“The key here is that the Arctic outbreak will last for many days and will not just be a quick one- to three-day event,” Pastelok said. “A trainload of Arctic anticyclones will move south from the Northern Plains into the U.S.” into the southeastern states with the pattern.

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