No. 1 Oregon qualified for the Big Ten Championship Game in its first year in the new-look, 18-team conference in 2024.

Who will the Ducks face in the Big Ten championship game? That remains an open question, favoring No. 2 Ohio State with one week left in the regular season. Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 on Oct. 12, and the schools face a rematch – if the Buckeyes beat rival Michigan on Saturday.

Who still has a chance? No. 4 Penn State and No. 10 Indiana still have a path to the Big Ten Championship Game, but they may know their fate before they take the field on Saturday. The Nittany Lions face Maryland at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Hoosiers play Purdue at 7 p.m. ET.

How will the Big Ten puzzle be solved? A look at the scenarios for the remaining Big Ten contenders ahead of Rivalry Week.

MORE: CFP, bowl forecasts after week 13

2024 Big Ten Championship Scenarios

Four teams remain in the picture for the Big Ten championship games. A look at their path to the conference championship game. The Big Ten scenarios can also be seen here.

Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)

– The Ducks have secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and will secure the conference’s No. 1 seed with a win against Washington in Week 14.

— If the Ducks lose to Washington, they could drop to No. 2 if Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State win on Saturday. In this scenario, Oregon is the No. 2 seed behind the Buckeyes.

– If Oregon and Ohio State lose, the Ducks would be No. 2 behind Penn State or Indiana. In this case, the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers’ spot would be decided based on cumulative conference winning percentage. Right now, that favors Penn State.

Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)

– Ohio State secures a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win against Michigan.

– If Ohio State beats Michigan, Oregon loses to Washington, Penn State beats Maryland and Indiana beats Purdue, then there will be a four-way tie for first place. The Buckeyes would get the No. 1 seed because they had the highest cumulative winning percentage in the conference (see table below).

– If Ohio State loses to Michigan, Penn State will have to lose to Maryland and Indiana will have to lose to Purdue to get to the Big Ten championship game.

MORE: Tips against the spread for the top 25 games of Week 14

Penn State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)

– Penn State must beat Maryland and Michigan to beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions would be in the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State has a higher cumulative conference winning percentage than Indiana, and that would be a deciding factor.

– The Ducks and Nittany Lions have similar cumulative winning percentages. So if Ohio State and Oregon lose and Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions would have a shot at the No. 1 seed.

Indiana (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)

– Indiana has to beat Purdue. The Hoosiers also need Ohio State to beat Michigan and Maryland to beat Penn State to reach the Big Ten championship game. Cumulative conference winning percentage does not benefit the Hoosiers.

Cumulative winning percentage of Big Ten conferences

The fourth tiebreaker in the Big Ten is opponents’ cumulative conference winning percentage. Here’s a look at how these four teams fare in the tiebreaker ahead of Rivalry Week:

OPPONENT	OREGON	INDIANA	OSU	PENN ST
Indiana	–	–	7-1	–
Illinois	5-3	–	–	5-3
Iowa	–	–	5-3
Maryland	1-7	1-7	–	1-7
Michigan	4-4	4-4	4-4
Michigan State	3-5	3-5	3-5
Minnesota	–	–	–	4-4
Nebraska	–	3-5	3-5
Northwest	–	2-6	2-6
Ohio State	7-1	7-1	–	7-1
Oregon	–	–	8-0
Penn State	–	–	7-1
Purdue	0-8	0-8	0-8	0-8
Rutgers	–	–	–
UCLA	3-6	3-6	–	3-6
USC	–	–	–	4-5
Wisconsin	3-5	–	–	3-5
Washington	4-4	4-4	–	4-4
RECORD	30-43	27-46	39-33	31-43
Win %	.410	.370	.541	.419

Who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game?

We predicted Ohio State would beat Michigan 30-13 in Rivalry Week, which would eliminate any chance for the Nittany Lions or Hoosiers to reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

That would set up a rematch between the Buckeyes and Ducks. The winner would likely receive the No. 1 seed in the first 12 College Football Playoffs and a first-round bye. Their quarterfinal game is January 1st at the Rose Bowl. The loser would likely fall to either 5th or 6th place and host a first round playoff game. Penn State and Indiana are also good chances to make the College Football Playoff.

The Big Ten Championship Game begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on December 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be televised on CBS.